Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis
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0:02 - 0:06[The Federal Reserve has cut its key interest rate to the lowest level…]
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0:10 - 0:12[Crisis will happen…]
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0:12 - 0:15[The biggest fiscal stimulus we have ever seen…]
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0:17 - 0:20[We’re in the midst of a serious financial crisis
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0:20 - 0:23and the federal government is responding with decisive action…]
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0:32 - 0:35Have you taken a large home loan?
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0:37 - 0:41Or did you put your savings in stocks, mutual funds or bonds?
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0:43 - 0:46If not, than you can relax.
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0:46 - 0:49But all of us who did are living on borrowed time.
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0:50 - 0:55This is the story of the greatest financial crisis of our time.
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0:55 - 0:57The one that is on its way.
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1:15 - 1:20They spent hundreds of billions of dollars to show that they were doing something
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1:20 - 1:25but not properly designed and not as effective as it should’ve been.
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1:25 - 1:29When they start losing money, “Hey, we gotta get back in the game,
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1:29 - 1:34“we gotta get theirs dice rolling again, hey, let’s create another bubble.
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1:34 - 1:39“You think the dot-com bubble was too big? We’ve got a bigger one for you…”
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1:42 - 1:44Well, the problem is they never actually cured the crisis.
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1:44 - 1:46Right, they just give alcohol to a drunk.
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1:46 - 1:50It doesn’t sober him up, it just sets him up for, you know, a bigger hangover.
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1:50 - 1:53And that’s all we’ve done, and that’s all we’re trying to do.
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1:53 - 1:56And so I know at some point you kill the patient, right.
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1:56 - 1:58At some point you can’t drink any more.
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1:58 - 2:01It’s just, it’s just the end of it. You reach the end of the ability.
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2:01 - 2:02And that’s where we are…
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2:02 - 2:04Congress wanted to believe them.
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2:04 - 2:08Congress wanted an excuse to bail out the autoworkers
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2:08 - 2:12and the executives gave them just enough political cover to say:
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2:12 - 2:16“Aah, well, I’m not really doing this because I want autoworker votes
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2:16 - 2:18“and I’m gonna give them huge amount of money.
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2:18 - 2:21“I’m really doing this for the American economy.”
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2:38 - 2:40So, the solution is the problem.
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2:40 - 2:44That’s why we have the problem in the first place.
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2:45 - 2:50This is the danger in protecting investors and consumers
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2:50 - 2:53from the consequences of their own decisions.
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2:58 - 3:04Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis
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3:04 - 3:08We can do it. But we need to do it soon
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3:08 - 3:13because the clock is ticking and time is not working in our favor.
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3:18 - 3:21I know many Americans have questions tonight.
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3:21 - 3:24How did we reach this point in our economy
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3:24 - 3:28and what does this mean for your financial future?
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3:28 - 3:36These are good questions and they deserve clear answers.
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3:41 - 3:47They took down the symbols… the financial symbols of America.
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3:47 - 3:51The twin towers of the world trade.
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3:54 - 3:57[Today we’ve had a national tragedy.]
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3:58 - 4:03[Two airplanes have crashed into the World Trade Center.]
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4:13 - 4:20Uhm, my, my old company… my whole com… where I used to work
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4:20 - 4:22the whole company is missing.
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4:23 - 4:25The story of the great financial crisis
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4:25 - 4:28begins just like many of the stories of our era.
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4:28 - 4:33In the United States, on September 11th, 2001.
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4:33 - 4:36The terrorists knew exactly what they were doing.
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4:36 - 4:39Striking at the ultimate symbol of the global economy.
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4:39 - 4:43And they did it when the US was already slumping into a recession
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4:43 - 4:45after the dot-com bubble had burst.
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4:45 - 4:49[Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve] Despite the tragic events of September 11th,
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4:49 - 4:53the foundations of our free society remain sound
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4:53 - 4:58and I’m confident that we will recover and prosper as we have in the past.
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5:03 - 5:08In spring 2001 the Federal Reserve started lowering interest rates
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5:08 - 5:10and now it continued lowering rates
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5:10 - 5:14to save companies on the brink and to keep unemployment down.
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5:14 - 5:20During 2001 the interest rate was lowered from 6.5% to 1.75%.
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5:20 - 5:27In 2003 it was cut all the way to 1% and it remained there for a full year.
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5:30 - 5:34Predicting the panic of ’08, the economic 9/11
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5:34 - 5:38and the current economic crisis that we’re still in
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5:38 - 5:41was probably one of the easiest forecasts we’ve ever made
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5:41 - 5:44in our 30 years of trend forecasting.
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5:44 - 5:45It was very simple.
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5:46 - 5:51Gerald Celente lives in Kingston, a few miles north from New York.
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5:51 - 5:54He’s one of the top trend analysts in the US.
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5:54 - 5:56He’s been called a modern Nostradamus.
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5:56 - 5:58He didn’t just predicted current crisis,
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5:58 - 6:03he also predicted the dot-com bubble and the stock market collapse of 1987.
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6:04 - 6:09Immediately after 9/11 the president of the United States George W. Bush
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6:09 - 6:13told the people to be good Americans and go out and shop.
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6:13 - 6:15But how are they going to do it? You’re in a recession.
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6:16 - 6:18Federal Reserve comes to the rescue.
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6:18 - 6:22In his memoir, Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan writes
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6:22 - 6:26that he knew that low interest rates might cause a bubble.
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6:27 - 6:28[It’s party time.]
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6:28 - 6:31Traditionally, central banks remove the punch bowl
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6:31 - 6:33once the party stops.
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6:33 - 6:36The interest rate can’t remain low for too long
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6:36 - 6:39or people will do things they’ll regret later.
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6:40 - 6:44[This is one party that just has to turn out right…]
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6:44 - 6:48[Well, the purpose of a party is to have fun together
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6:48 - 6:52and a successful party needs planning and skill…]
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6:52 - 6:56Greenspan argued that the Fed should never remove the punch bowl
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6:56 - 7:00but rather keep refilling it when the party started to peter out.
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7:01 - 7:04And if things went bad, the Fed would clean up the mess
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7:04 - 7:06and tend to the hangover.
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7:06 - 7:09Banks and speculators loved it.
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7:09 - 7:12Now they could take greater risks than ever before.
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7:12 - 7:15If they were successful, they could keep the profits.
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7:15 - 7:18And if they were unlucky, Greenspan would rescue them.
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7:20 - 7:21[Mama’s that way.
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7:21 - 7:26Let me come home crying over something and she’d get me candy every time.]
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7:30 - 7:34When you see the stock market come down and real estate bubble burst
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7:34 - 7:35all that phoney wealth is gonna evaporate
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7:35 - 7:39and all that’s gonna be left is all the debt we’ve accumulated to foreigners…
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7:44 - 7:47Peter Schiff is another analyst who was roundly mocked
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7:47 - 7:51when he predicted the crisis for the US economy in the midst of the boom.
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7:53 - 7:57We went on a unprecedented global spending binge.
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7:57 - 8:03American citizens borrowed and spent trillions of dollars to buy stuff
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8:03 - 8:05and that is why we’re in so much trouble.
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8:05 - 8:09It was because we got drunk on all that Fed alcohol.
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8:09 - 8:12FED ALCOHOL
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8:13 - 8:16In a world that was suddenly uncertain with the country under attack
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8:16 - 8:20nothing felt safer than investing in your own home.
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8:20 - 8:22In the American Dream.
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8:23 - 8:26I do believe in the American Dream. [17 June 2002]
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8:26 - 8:29I believe there’s such a thing as the American Dream.
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8:29 - 8:32Owning a home is a part of that dream.
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8:32 - 8:34It just is. Right here in America, if you own your own home,
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8:34 - 8:37you’re realising the American Dream.
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8:38 - 8:43Vernon Smith was awarded the Nobel prize in economics in 2002.
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8:43 - 8:46He received it for his research in experimental economics.
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8:46 - 8:50In his experiments he puts economic theories to the test.
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8:50 - 8:53Smith is an expert on bubbles.
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8:54 - 8:59If you can buy a home with almost nothing down
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8:59 - 9:04then you do well if the prices continue to go up.
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9:04 - 9:08If it goes down, well, then you have an incentive to walk away from it
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9:08 - 9:10and let the bank have it.
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9:12 - 9:15Low interest rates caused a housing bubble.
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9:15 - 9:19Cheap loans encouraged people to buy more and bigger homes.
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9:19 - 9:23Housing prices began to rise by 10% a year.
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9:23 - 9:27So many took out a second mortgage on their old house to fund consumption.
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9:29 - 9:32You wanna go on a vacation, buy some new clothes?
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9:32 - 9:35How about putting an addition on your house?
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9:35 - 9:36You don’t have the money?
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9:36 - 9:39How about a home equity loan? That’s for you.
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9:39 - 9:42Let’s use your house as a piggy bank.
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9:42 - 9:45The banks granted loans to almost anyone.
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9:46 - 9:48Why would you need a decent income to buy a home
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9:48 - 9:51if you can get rich just living in it?
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9:51 - 9:54The market even coined the term NINA loans.
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9:54 - 9:55No income?
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9:55 - 9:57No assets?
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9:57 - 9:58No problem!
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9:58 - 9:59You’ll get a loan, anyway.
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9:59 - 10:06The legislation was more aggressively pushing lenders
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10:06 - 10:10to lend to people of modest means, people with… whose incomes
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10:10 - 10:14were 80% of the median income or below.
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10:14 - 10:17Politicians encouraged this.
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10:17 - 10:22For a long time both the left and the right have been encouraging home ownership.
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10:22 - 10:25So they’ve created deductions, subsidies and insurances.
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10:25 - 10:29And they created two huge mortgage-financing companies.
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10:29 - 10:31Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
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10:31 - 10:35Their job was to use thousands of billions of dollars
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10:35 - 10:39to insure loans for people who couldn’t get them on the open market.
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10:39 - 10:43They were government-sponsored enterprises.
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10:43 - 10:46They had private owners but they had been created by Congress
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10:46 - 10:50and their transactions were guaranteed by the government.
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10:51 - 10:54[Former Chief Economist, Freddie Mac] So, there’re particularly Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
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10:54 - 10:55government-sponsored enterprises
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10:55 - 11:00and what it means is, er, they’re private, not now maybe. But they’re private companies
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11:00 - 11:03that have special charters from the government.
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11:03 - 11:06And the thing about government-sponsored enterprises
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11:06 - 11:08which is the main thing people are talking about
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11:08 - 11:11is a sense that they’re guaranteed by the government.
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11:11 - 11:13[17 June 2002] First of all, government-sponsored corporations
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11:13 - 11:14that helped create our mortgage system,
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11:14 - 11:17I introduced two of the leaders here today,
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11:17 - 11:20they call those people Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
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11:20 - 11:22as well as the Federal Home Loan Banks,
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11:22 - 11:25will increase their commitment to minority markets
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11:25 - 11:30by more than 440 billion dollars.
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11:34 - 11:37In the last decade, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have donated
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11:37 - 11:41more than 200 million dollars to politicians in Washington.
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11:41 - 11:44Enterprise-sponsored government.
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11:45 - 11:48I asked the former Freddie Mac chief economist
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11:48 - 11:50what they got for their money.
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11:51 - 11:52I don’t know.
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11:52 - 11:56I mean, I… that’s a tougher question, ehm,
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11:56 - 12:00they had a pretty good charter, ehm,
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12:00 - 12:04they, they have… they were regulate in a spotty way.
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12:04 - 12:08In many ways the regulatory structure wasn’t that bad
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12:08 - 12:13but it was the case that the regulatory structure was a compromise.
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12:13 - 12:15It wasn’t the Treasury, it wasn’t the Housing really,
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12:15 - 12:18it was some… somewhere in between.
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12:18 - 12:20There was a huge moral hazard
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12:20 - 12:23courtesy of the government in the mortgage market.
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12:23 - 12:25When the government, through Fannie and Freddie,
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12:25 - 12:29started to guarantee mortgages, then the lenders were no longer
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12:29 - 12:31worried about getting their money back because the government said:
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12:31 - 12:32“We guarantee it.”
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12:32 - 12:35And so that’s why I proposed and urge Congress
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12:35 - 12:38to fully fund the American Dream Down Payment Fund.
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12:39 - 12:45This will use money, er, taxpayer’s money to help
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12:45 - 12:49a qualified, low-income buyer make a down payment.
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12:49 - 12:52Well, greed has to be balanced with a certain amount of fear
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12:52 - 12:57and that’s what down payment rules were all about. And amortisation rules.
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12:57 - 13:02It is to keep people from carried away by, as you say, the greed
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13:02 - 13:05of expecting become rich by buying a home
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13:05 - 13:08and reselling at a higher price.
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13:08 - 13:11And that’s important. If one of the barriers to home ownership
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13:11 - 13:13is the inability to make a down payment
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13:13 - 13:17and if one of the goals is to increase home ownership,
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13:17 - 13:21it makes sense to help people pay that down payment.
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13:21 - 13:23This is the problem.
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13:23 - 13:24The moral hazard.
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13:24 - 13:27We gave a moral hazard to home buyers.
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13:27 - 13:30Once you say that you can by a home with no down payment,
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13:30 - 13:33all of a sudden there’s no risk to the borrower.
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13:33 - 13:34He doesn’t care if he overpays
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13:34 - 13:37because if the house keeps going up, he makes money.
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13:37 - 13:40If it stops going up, the bank loses the money.
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13:40 - 13:43You know, we have moral hazards in our banking system.
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13:43 - 13:46The US government guarantees all bank deposits.
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13:46 - 13:47Well, what does that mean?
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13:47 - 13:50That means that depositers don’t care what the banks do
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13:50 - 13:52with their money once they deposit it.
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13:52 - 13:54Because they know the government guarantees it.
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13:54 - 13:58And the federal government obviously has to play an important role.
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13:58 - 14:02And we will, we will, I mean… when I lay out a goal, I mean it.
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14:02 - 14:03Why are they doing that?
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14:03 - 14:07Why can’t we let mortgages be financed in the private sector?
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14:07 - 14:10The reason is because the private sector would not finance
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14:10 - 14:14these crazy mortgages and real estate prices would have to come down
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14:14 - 14:16to levels that people can actually afford.
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14:17 - 14:22How can you promote home ownership if people can’t afford a home?
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14:22 - 14:25The big banks dared to make riskier loans
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14:25 - 14:28because they had started repackaging loans
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14:28 - 14:31and selling them to others as securities.
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14:31 - 14:33They sold them to each other,
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14:33 - 14:35to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
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14:35 - 14:40and they sold them to Norway, to Germany and to China.
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14:40 - 14:41If the loans turned bad,
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14:41 - 14:45someone else would end up with a hot potato.
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14:45 - 14:48I guess we’re little early. What do you want to do?
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14:48 - 14:51Anything but inspect this temple of capitalism.
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14:51 - 14:52Oh, Nick.
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14:52 - 14:55Look at them, their eyes popping out of their heads.
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14:55 - 14:58Drooling over the very things that are taking away their jobs.
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14:58 - 15:00Now Nick, don’t get all excited.
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15:00 - 15:03My family think that America is a pretty swell place
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15:03 - 15:04and I don’t want you to disillusion them.
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15:04 - 15:05I know.
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15:06 - 15:07Everybody wanted to buy
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15:07 - 15:10because the rating agencies that rate securities
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15:10 - 15:14gave the mortgage-backed bonds their highest rating.
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15:14 - 15:17They promised huge payoffs at near zero risk.
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15:17 - 15:21The rating agencies thought that house prices would just keep rising.
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15:21 - 15:24And then there was that minor detail
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15:24 - 15:29that the rating agencies were being paid by the sellers of the securities.
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15:29 - 15:32So I think the process was corrupted. First of all,
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15:32 - 15:37the government licenses Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s
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15:37 - 15:39so there’s only a few companies who are authorised
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15:39 - 15:40to rate these bonds.
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15:40 - 15:43So it wasn’t really a free market, the government was in bed
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15:43 - 15:45with Moody’s and with Standard & Poor’s.
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15:45 - 15:48But also you had this perverse relationship
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15:48 - 15:50between Wall Street and the rating agencies
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15:50 - 15:53where they were paying the rating agencies
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15:53 - 15:55to rate the products that they were structuring.
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15:55 - 15:58And so there was, you know, this was an incestuous relationship where
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15:58 - 16:01they knew if they put bad ratings on them, they wouldn’t sell
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16:01 - 16:04and if they didn’t sell, they wouldn’t be making all this money
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16:04 - 16:06constantly rating them.
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16:08 - 16:10They were great days.
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16:10 - 16:12But it was all based on a market on steroids.
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16:12 - 16:17Loans were cheap enough to keep trying the housing prices up.
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16:17 - 16:21But when interest rates returned to normal levels in 2006,
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16:21 - 16:23the spell was broken.
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16:23 - 16:27But for one person the future was still bright.
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16:27 - 16:28Ben Bernanke,
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16:28 - 16:31Alan Greenspan’s successor as Federal Reserve chairman.
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16:32 - 16:34[29 July 2005] Tell me, what is the worst-case scenario
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16:34 - 16:38if in fact we were to see prices come down substantially
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16:38 - 16:39across the country?
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16:39 - 16:41Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise,
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16:41 - 16:43it’s a pretty unlikely possibility,
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16:43 - 16:47we’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.
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16:48 - 16:52People could no longer get new loans to pay off the old ones.
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16:52 - 16:55Those who had been given a mortgage despite a very low income
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16:55 - 16:57couldn’t afford to stay.
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16:57 - 16:59The prices started falling,
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16:59 - 17:03making the mortgage-backed securities increasingly worthless.
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17:03 - 17:05[28 February 2007] There’s not much indication at this point that
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17:05 - 17:10subprime mortgage issues have spread into the broader mortgage market
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17:10 - 17:12which still seems to be healthy.
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17:12 - 17:16The rating agencies removed the high ratings from the securities.
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17:16 - 17:19Investors, who never looked beyond the ratings,
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17:19 - 17:21suddenly didn’t know what they had bought.
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17:21 - 17:24They didn’t know how risky those loans were.
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17:24 - 17:28[Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, 18 July 2007] Overall the US economy appears likely to expand at a moderate pace
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17:28 - 17:31over the second half of 2007
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17:31 - 17:34with growth and strengthening a bit in 2008
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17:34 - 17:37to a rate close to the economy’s underlining trend.
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17:38 - 17:41The dominoes started falling.
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17:41 - 17:44Investors stopped buying mortgage-backed securities
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17:44 - 17:47and refused to lend to those who depended on them.
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17:48 - 17:51Investment banks like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers
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17:51 - 17:55suddenly couldn’t get new loans to stay in business.
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17:55 - 18:00Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could no longer hide the disaster.
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18:02 - 18:05The financial crisis started in a way
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18:05 - 18:08that is eerily similar to today’s situation.
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18:08 - 18:12It started with an economic crisis in the US
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18:12 - 18:15and a government that responded decisively.
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18:15 - 18:18After 9/11 and the dot-com collapse
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18:18 - 18:21the US government decided to save the economy
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18:21 - 18:23by inflating a new bubble.
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18:23 - 18:27Today, the world is trying to get out of the financial crisis
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18:27 - 18:30by inflating a new bubble.
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18:30 - 18:35The difference is that this bubble is much bigger.
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18:44 - 18:48After they did the dot-com bubble and that burst
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18:48 - 18:52and they re-inflated it with the real estate and credit crisis bubble
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18:52 - 18:53and then when that burst,
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18:53 - 18:56now they’ve created the bubble of all bubbles.
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18:56 - 19:01It’s not only the United States, this is a global bubble, they’re all in to it.
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19:01 - 19:03It’s called the bailout bubble.
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19:03 - 19:07“Hey, the economy is going down, recession’s setting in,
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19:07 - 19:11“sales don’t look good, exports soft, need more money?
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19:11 - 19:15“How about, we’ll call it, stimulus packages?”
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19:15 - 19:19And from Australia to the United States,
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19:19 - 19:22from the UK to China
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19:22 - 19:27they’re dumping funny money into the system to keep it going.
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19:29 - 19:34In September of 2008 the US economy is near collapse.
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19:34 - 19:38Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been taken over by the government.
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19:39 - 19:44On September 15th giant investment bank Lehman Brothers goes bankrupt
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19:44 - 19:47after monumental bets on real estate.
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19:48 - 19:51AIG, the largest insurance company in the world,
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19:51 - 19:53collapses the next day.
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19:53 - 19:54Fear sets in.
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19:54 - 19:56It seems like anyone can fail.
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19:56 - 20:01Suddenly, banks no longer dare make loans to companies or each other.
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20:03 - 20:06Experts warn that the economy is about to collapse.
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20:10 - 20:13[The CBS News Special Report]
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20:13 - 20:15[A presidential address to the nation.]
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20:15 - 20:20[From CBS News headquarters in New York here is Katie Couric.]
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20:20 - 20:21Good evening, everyone.
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20:21 - 20:24President Bush asked the networks for this television time
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20:24 - 20:28so he could talk directly to you about a national crisis.
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20:28 - 20:31Some of this country’s major financial institutions
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20:31 - 20:34are in danger of collapsing under the weight of bad mortgages
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20:34 - 20:37and that would be devastating for the entire economy.
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20:38 - 20:41We’re in the midst of a serious financial crisis
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20:41 - 20:45and the federal government is responding with decisive action.
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20:49 - 20:51$700 billion
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20:51 - 20:55In a televised speech Bush scares the market even more
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20:55 - 20:58while still claiming that they can trust him.
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20:58 - 21:00He has a solution.
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21:00 - 21:01Under our proposal the federal government
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21:01 - 21:05would put up to 700 billion taxpayer dollars on the line
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21:05 - 21:08to purchase trouble assets that are clogging the financial system.
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21:16 - 21:20The US government wants to spend huge amount on Wall Street banks
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21:20 - 21:22to cover their bad deals.
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21:22 - 21:24Even banks who don’t want the money
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21:24 - 21:25will be forced to take it
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21:25 - 21:28so that the public won’t know which banks
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21:28 - 21:30are on the brink of collapse.
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21:32 - 21:33[All those in favor say “I”.]
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21:33 - 21:35[I…]
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21:35 - 21:36[Opposed say “no”.]
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21:36 - 21:38[The I’s have it.]
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21:41 - 21:42I want to thank the Secretary of Treasury
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21:42 - 21:44for working hard with the members
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21:44 - 21:46and thank the members for working long hours
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21:46 - 21:48like they’ve been doing to come up with this solution
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21:48 - 21:51that’s bipartisan and that’ll solve the problem.
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21:51 - 21:55On October 3rd Congress approves the biggest financial bailout in history.
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21:56 - 22:00700 billion dollars.
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22:02 - 22:03Around the world,
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22:03 - 22:07in Germany, Italy, Canada, South Korea and Great Britain,
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22:07 - 22:11other politicians do the same to save their banks.
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22:18 - 22:22We’ve taken the right, the decisive and the tough decision
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22:22 - 22:24that was necessary to protect the stability of the financial system
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22:24 - 22:27and to protect the depositors.
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22:29 - 22:34David Walker was US Comptroller General from 1998 to 2008.
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22:34 - 22:38He quit because he was so worried about the US economy
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22:38 - 22:42that he wanted to have the freedom to warn about what may happen.
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22:42 - 22:44In my view,
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22:44 - 22:49the bailout was necessary in certain regards
-
22:49 - 22:54but in many cases we wasted a lot of money.
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22:54 - 22:55Because we didn’t do three things.
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22:55 - 22:58First, have clearly defined objectives
-
22:58 - 23:00about what we were trying to achieve.
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23:00 - 23:04Secondly, have criteria established up front
-
23:04 - 23:07as to who would get the money and who wouldn’t get the money.
-
23:07 - 23:10And number three, have conditions established up front
-
23:10 - 23:13as to what they could and couldn’t do with the money.
-
23:13 - 23:16And as a result of not having those three things,
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23:16 - 23:19some people got the money that didn’t deserve it,
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23:19 - 23:23other people got the money that didn’t make good use of it
-
23:23 - 23:27and as a result we had a lot of waste with regard to taxpayer money.
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23:27 - 23:31[19 November 2008] What would it mean if the domestic industry were allowed to fail?
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23:31 - 23:34You heard Senator Stabenow…
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23:34 - 23:36As a result of the crisis
-
23:36 - 23:39the situation for the US auto industry becomes critical.
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23:39 - 23:43On November 19th their CEOs fly to Washington to demand money.
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23:44 - 23:47[Business and economics editor] The executives came out and they said:
-
23:47 - 23:51“If you don’t do this,
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23:51 - 23:54“we are going to see a jobs holocaust.”
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23:54 - 23:58They issued extremely high estimates of how many jobs would be lost
-
23:58 - 24:00that included counting every single company
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24:00 - 24:02that supplies them with anything.
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24:02 - 24:05That’s why this is all about a lot more than just Detroit.
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24:05 - 24:09It’s about saving the US economy from a catastrophic collapse.
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24:09 - 24:12A month later president Bush gives billions of dollars
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24:12 - 24:15to General Motors and Chrysler.
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24:15 - 24:17The money comes from the bailout package
-
24:17 - 24:20that was really only designed to save the financial industry.
-
24:20 - 24:22[Now, some US auto executives say
-
24:22 - 24:24that their companies are nearing collapse.]
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24:25 - 24:29[And that the only way they can buy time to restructure
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24:29 - 24:31is with help from the federal government.]
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24:31 - 24:34Megan McArdle is a financial analyst for the Atlantic
-
24:34 - 24:38and has written extensively about the problems of the US auto industry.
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24:38 - 24:42Congress wanted an excuse to bail out the autoworkers
-
24:42 - 24:46and the executives gave them just enough political cover to say:
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24:46 - 24:50“Aah, well, I’m not really doing this because I want autoworker votes
-
24:50 - 24:52“and I’m gonna give them huge amount of money.
-
24:52 - 24:55“I’m really doing this for the American economy.”
-
24:55 - 24:57But if you look at how much money we gave them,
-
24:57 - 24:59I mean, we’re talking about almost a hundred billion dollars,
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24:59 - 25:01it’s how much we’ll end up spending on this.
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25:01 - 25:04You know, even if you were saving millions of jobs,
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25:04 - 25:07it would’ve been cheaper to give every single one of those people
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25:07 - 25:10100,000 dollars to go out and find a new job.
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25:11 - 25:13The big guys on Wall Street,
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25:13 - 25:15they can’t take their losses.
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25:15 - 25:17They’re crybaby capitalists.
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25:17 - 25:23Oh, they preach capitalism for everybody but themselves.
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25:26 - 25:28[16 December 2008]
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25:32 - 25:35[The Federal Reserve has cut its key interest rate
-
25:35 - 25:37to the lowest level on record.]
-
25:37 - 25:40[Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues also pledge
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25:40 - 25:44to use all available tools to contain the widening crisis
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25:44 - 25:47and the longest recession in a quarter century.]
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25:50 - 25:53December 16th, 2008.
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25:53 - 25:57It is time again to pour alcohol into the punch bowl.
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25:57 - 26:01The Federal Reserve reduces interest rates to practically zero
-
26:01 - 26:03to restore investor confidence.
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26:03 - 26:06Other central banks do the same.
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26:07 - 26:09Hey, have no credit? Don’t worry about it.
-
26:09 - 26:12Just sign on the dotted line.
-
26:12 - 26:14INSERT COIN
-
26:15 - 26:17The housing bubble that they inflated
-
26:17 - 26:20blew up with all the carnage and all the bankruptcies
-
26:20 - 26:21and now what is their solution?
-
26:21 - 26:23“We’ll just do the same thing we did before.”
-
26:23 - 26:27Instead of having interest rates at 1%, let’s have them at zero.
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26:27 - 26:30And let’s buy everything we can. Let’s print money and buy mortgages.
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26:30 - 26:32Let’s buy credit card debts, student loans.
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26:32 - 26:35Let’s buy bonds, let’s drop money from helicopters
-
26:35 - 26:40to try to get the same risk taking, excessive gambling on Wall Street
-
26:40 - 26:44Let’s try to convince Americans, who are already loaded up on debt,
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26:44 - 26:47to go out and buy more stuff, to go out and go deeper in the debt.
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26:47 - 26:49And if the banks don’t want to lend them money,
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26:49 - 26:50let’s make ’em lend them money.
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26:50 - 26:53I mean, this is economic, you know, suicide.
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26:55 - 26:57While the Fed lowers interest rates,
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26:57 - 27:01president elect Barack Obama prepares an enormous stimulus package,
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27:01 - 27:04meant to get the US economy going.
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27:06 - 27:11We are running out of the traditional ammunition
-
27:11 - 27:12that’s used in a recession,
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27:12 - 27:15which is to lower interest rates,
-
27:15 - 27:17they’re getting to be about as low as they can go.
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27:21 - 27:23$787 billion
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27:24 - 27:26[17 February 2009] The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
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27:26 - 27:28that I will sign today,
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27:28 - 27:33a plan that meets the principles I laid out in January,
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27:33 - 27:36is the most sweeping economic recovery package
-
27:36 - 27:37in our history.
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27:39 - 27:43On February 7th, 2009 Obama approves a stimulus package
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27:43 - 27:47worth 787 billion dollars.
-
27:47 - 27:51With the Bush stimulus package from the year before
-
27:51 - 27:54US politicians have now spent close to one trillion dollars
-
27:54 - 27:56to stimulate the US economy.
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27:56 - 28:01The money is spent on roads, airports, education, unemployment
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28:01 - 28:03and other benefits.
-
28:03 - 28:05There is bureaucracy in everywhere.
-
28:06 - 28:10And in Italy they used to say, where I’m from.
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28:10 - 28:16When you have a jar of honey, you lick your fingers.
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28:21 - 28:25The town of Union is located a few hours from the Canadian border.
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28:25 - 28:28This is where the computer company IBM got its start
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28:28 - 28:30and grew to be the biggest in the world.
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28:30 - 28:32The factories are now empty
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28:32 - 28:36but the town has acquired a small town rhythm.
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28:36 - 28:39So they were surprised when 600,000 dollars
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28:39 - 28:44from the stimulus package arrived to combat homelessness.
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28:44 - 28:47[Mayor] Ah, you know, on occasion, you know,
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28:47 - 28:53our police officers may run across someone and they try to, you know,
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28:53 - 28:57take the person to an area where the individual can get some shelter
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28:57 - 29:00and get something to eat. But it’s not a problem here.
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29:02 - 29:05This is Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills,
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29:05 - 29:08probably the world’s most famous upscale shopping district.
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29:08 - 29:11It was here, for example, that Julia Roberts went shopping
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29:11 - 29:13in Pretty Woman.
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29:13 - 29:16Stimulus money has made its way here as well.
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29:16 - 29:20These streets are to be repaved to the tune of 1 million dollars.
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29:20 - 29:23Sure, there’re potholes in the asphalt
-
29:23 - 29:27but is this really the economy that needs to be stimulated?
-
29:30 - 29:35We had a $787 billion stimulus bill
-
29:35 - 29:39but only about one third of it was truly stimulus.
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29:39 - 29:43By that I mean timely, targeted and temporary.
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29:43 - 29:46The other two thirds were things that people wanted to do,
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29:46 - 29:49have been wanting to do for a long time
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29:49 - 29:51but they didn’t want to have to pay for it.
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29:51 - 29:54They wanted to do it as a part of emergency legislation
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29:54 - 29:56and charge it to the national credit card.
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30:00 - 30:05The Johnstown, Pennsylvania airport has three scheduled flights a day.
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30:05 - 30:08Other than that, it’s quite empty.
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30:08 - 30:12When we have the flights coming, that’s when the people are here.
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30:12 - 30:14Other than that, it’s empty.
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30:14 - 30:16But one face is everywhere.
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30:16 - 30:20Congressman John Murtha, the airport’s name sake.
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30:20 - 30:22He’s been called the King of Pork
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30:22 - 30:26and has gotten 200 million dollars for Murtha Airport from Washington.
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30:26 - 30:30Earlier this year, the airport got a new source of revenue,
-
30:30 - 30:32800,000 dollars from the stimulus package
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30:32 - 30:35to repave this backup landing strip.
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30:35 - 30:39The head of the airport insists that the landing strip is safe.
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30:39 - 30:43So why does it need doing if its not a safety issue?
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30:49 - 30:51Because of the steps we take,
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30:51 - 30:54this plan is about to shift it to high gear.
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30:55 - 30:58One of the biggest stimulus programmes was aimed at the auto industry:
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30:58 - 31:00Cash for Clunkers.
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31:00 - 31:03Turn in your old car and get cash toward a new one
-
31:03 - 31:04from the government.
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31:04 - 31:09It was so popular that its one billion dollar budget ran out in a week.
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31:09 - 31:12So more money was quickly injected.
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31:13 - 31:16Many countries offered similar programmes.
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31:16 - 31:20Germany had the biggest one and handed out almost 7 billion dollars
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31:20 - 31:22to those who scrapped any car more than 9 years old
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31:22 - 31:25while buying a new one.
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31:28 - 31:33Our government seem to think that German auto industry is so important
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31:33 - 31:35we have to support it in some ways
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31:35 - 31:38and therefore they created this bonus.
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31:38 - 31:39They didn’t call it a scrapping bonus,
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31:39 - 31:43because I think they knew just how ridiculous that was,
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31:43 - 31:46so they called it an environment bonus.
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31:46 - 31:50Karen Horn is a doctor of economics at a German Economics Institute.
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31:51 - 31:54And of course, people took advantage of that.
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31:54 - 31:59It worked as long as it was on, the programme worked.
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31:59 - 32:04But now it’s out, it’s over and of course, numbers are dropping,
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32:04 - 32:09people are feeling that they ran into additional debt due to that bonus
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32:09 - 32:11that they wanted to take advantage of
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32:11 - 32:13and they’re having problems they didn’t anticipate.
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32:13 - 32:18So Germany spent almost 7 billion dollars to scrap fully functioning cars
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32:18 - 32:22and to maintain excessive auto factory output.
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32:22 - 32:27Once the programme ended, the industry was right back in the doldrums.
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32:28 - 32:34I was just very surprised that people would accept the idea so readily,
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32:34 - 32:36that they would accept the money is something else.
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32:36 - 32:37Who wouldn’t.
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32:37 - 32:40But, ehm, that they would find this a solution
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32:40 - 32:42that they deemed viable.
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32:42 - 32:44It doesn’t give me a very good impression
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32:44 - 32:48of the rationality of the voter and taxpayer, I must say.
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32:48 - 32:50And that’s where we are.
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32:50 - 32:53I think at this point, the problem is now so big
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32:53 - 32:56that government stimulus is not going to, you know,
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32:56 - 32:59buy us another five or six years of phoney growth
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32:59 - 33:01like it did last time.
-
33:01 - 33:04Because we have to accumulate so much more debt now.
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33:04 - 33:07’Cause the bigger the problem gets, the more we have to stimulate
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33:07 - 33:09to get that short-term boost,
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33:09 - 33:12but now, the bigger the bust, because now we have the bigger stimulus,
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33:12 - 33:14you know, to get out the economy.
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33:17 - 33:21About a year after the worst economic crisis in modern history,
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33:21 - 33:23Lehman Brothers is gone.
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33:23 - 33:27But apart from that, Wall Street looks much the same.
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33:27 - 33:30Many banks are reporting record profits.
-
33:30 - 33:32The world’s stock markets have skyrocketed.
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33:32 - 33:37The market is finally breathing a sigh of relief.
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33:37 - 33:39But isn’t it somewhat uncomfortable?
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33:39 - 33:41Haven’t we been here before?
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33:41 - 33:45All the measures that we have taken to save the economy:
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33:45 - 33:47The low interest rates,
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33:47 - 33:48the massive debt,
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33:48 - 33:51the safety net for the financial industry.
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33:51 - 33:56These are the very things that led us into a crisis in the first place.
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33:56 - 34:00We’ve been saved from the consequences of one burst bubble
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34:00 - 34:05by inflating a hundred new ones, all over the world.
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34:20 - 34:25[27 January 2010] One year ago I took office amid two wars,
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34:25 - 34:28an economy rocked by a severe recession.
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34:28 - 34:33A financial system on a verge of collapse and a government deeply in debt.
-
34:33 - 34:36Experts from across the political spectrum warned
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34:36 - 34:41that if we did not act, we might face a second depression.
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34:42 - 34:43So we acted.
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34:43 - 34:46Immediately and aggressively.
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34:47 - 34:52And one year later the worst of the storm has passed.
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35:17 - 35:19There are positive signs.
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35:19 - 35:21This is the Hampton’s outside New York,
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35:21 - 35:24a classic playground for Manhattan’s elite.
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35:26 - 35:30A house by the Atlantic like this one costs 30 million dollars.
-
35:31 - 35:36And a hotdog bun with lobster salad costs 18 dollars.
-
35:36 - 35:38Fast food Hampton style.
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35:39 - 35:42The crisis has made its mark here too,
-
35:42 - 35:44there are fewer private jets at the airport.
-
35:44 - 35:49Instead the Porsches jostle the Mercedes on the turn pike to New York.
-
35:56 - 36:01New York City, Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles, California
-
36:01 - 36:04don’t represent the real world.
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36:04 - 36:07They also don’t represent the real part of America,
-
36:07 - 36:10the so-called main street of America.
-
36:10 - 36:11My tax money go to Bevery Hill,
-
36:11 - 36:14well, there is a lot of money in Beverly Hill.
-
36:14 - 36:16I don’t think they needed my money down there.
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36:16 - 36:19That’s a different world.
-
36:19 - 36:23It’s not a reality, you know, down there.
-
36:23 - 36:27If you ever visit Union and need a hair cut,
-
36:27 - 36:31you may well end up at Frank Petrilli’s barbershop.
-
36:38 - 36:42But unfortunately a lot of people lost their homes,
-
36:42 - 36:45because they lost their jobs.
-
36:45 - 36:46And it’s a…
-
36:46 - 36:51They now live under the line for that one time they were able to do it.
-
36:51 - 36:54And lot of the young people, specially educated,
-
36:54 - 36:58they try to move, go out of town,
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36:58 - 37:01but I believe that no matter where you go, the situtation is the same a lot.
-
37:01 - 37:02Where are they gonna go? Detroit?
-
37:04 - 37:05Now listen son,
-
37:07 - 37:09I wasn’t going to tell you this
-
37:09 - 37:13but you’re the reason we came here all the way from Indiana.
-
37:13 - 37:15You’ve heard all the talkers.
-
37:15 - 37:18Now, I’m going to show you the doers.
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37:22 - 37:27The US government has launched bailouts, stimulus packages and guarantees
-
37:27 - 37:30to the tune of 10,000 billion dollars.
-
37:30 - 37:33[Caught myself wondering for the hundredth time,
-
37:33 - 37:37how the hell I got here, what the hell I’m doing here.]
-
37:37 - 37:40That’s more than the total cost of the US government
-
37:40 - 37:43for World War I, World War II, the Korean War,
-
37:43 - 37:48the Vietnam War, the invasion of Iraq, the New Deal, the Marshall Plan
-
37:48 - 37:50and the Moon landing.
-
37:50 - 37:53[… one giant leap for mankind.]
-
37:53 - 37:55Bush almost wrecked up more US debt
-
37:55 - 37:58than all presidents before him combined,
-
37:58 - 38:02from George Washington to Bill Clinton.
-
38:02 - 38:05And Obama is almost creating greater debt
-
38:05 - 38:07than all presidents before him,
-
38:07 - 38:11including George W. Bush.
-
38:13 - 38:17But it’s not just the US that’s increasingly looking like a house of cards.
-
38:17 - 38:21During the crisis, many governments went deeply into debt.
-
38:21 - 38:23Estimates say that the average debt in the richest nations
-
38:23 - 38:28will exceed 100% by the year 2011.
-
38:29 - 38:33These are loans taken at currently low interest rates.
-
38:34 - 38:37Should the interest rate rise by 1%,
-
38:37 - 38:42the US interest payments will rise by 100 billion dollars per year.
-
38:42 - 38:47That’s more than the annual cost for the Vietnam War.
-
38:47 - 38:49[Sometimes it’s just an engine failure,
-
38:49 - 38:52other times it’s the deadly flak.]
-
38:52 - 38:55[If the pilot’s lucky, the flak kills him,
-
38:55 - 38:59but usually he isn’t and he burns to death as his plane spins in.]
-
38:59 - 39:02It sounds absurd to even think that the United States,
-
39:02 - 39:05the world’s economic superpower, might crash.
-
39:05 - 39:10After all, they get the highest ratings from the credit rating agencies.
-
39:10 - 39:12One of the lessons that we must learn
-
39:12 - 39:15from the mortgage-related subprime
-
39:15 - 39:21is you have to take credit ratings with a big grain of salt.
-
39:21 - 39:26Because as we saw with the mortgage-related securities,
-
39:26 - 39:31they went from AAA rating to junk bond pretty fast
-
39:31 - 39:34once people understood the true situation.
-
39:34 - 39:38Today, the United States is rated AAA
-
39:38 - 39:42but if it doesn’t start taking steps to put its financial health in order,
-
39:42 - 39:45that AAA rating will be lost.
-
39:45 - 39:47It’s only a matter of when and how quickly.
-
39:49 - 39:53In September 2008, the bankruptcy of one large investment bank
-
39:53 - 39:56brought the world economy to its knees.
-
39:56 - 39:58The fate of Lehman Brothers raised the question
-
39:58 - 40:00who was next in line.
-
40:00 - 40:03So everyone avoided doing business with banks.
-
40:03 - 40:07How would the world react if the next entity to declare bankruptcy
-
40:07 - 40:09is a nation?
-
40:09 - 40:12Who is next in line if that were to happen?
-
40:14 - 40:18Some houses of cards have already started falling.
-
40:18 - 40:19This is Iceland.
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40:19 - 40:23Until recently one of the richest nations in the world.
-
40:23 - 40:26When the crisis hit, the Icelandic banks collapsed,
-
40:26 - 40:28the Icelandic stock market crashed,
-
40:28 - 40:31leaving the debt with a small population.
-
40:32 - 40:37For the first time in 50 years this peaceful country saw riots.
-
40:42 - 40:43This is Greece.
-
40:43 - 40:46Here, deficits have hit a record high,
-
40:46 - 40:51the national debt is approaching 135% of GDP.
-
40:51 - 40:53The market wants higher interest rates for Greek loans,
-
40:53 - 40:56increasing the pressure on its strained economy.
-
40:56 - 41:01It seems like the Greek government needs a bailout to avoid collapse.
-
41:03 - 41:04Italy,
-
41:04 - 41:05Spain, Portugal
-
41:05 - 41:07and Great Britain
-
41:07 - 41:10are other EU nations with similar problems.
-
41:10 - 41:13What about my country, Sweden?
-
41:13 - 41:15The country’s finances are fairly robust,
-
41:15 - 41:20our national debt and deficit are lower than that of most nations.
-
41:20 - 41:23But Sweden is highly dependent on the world economy.
-
41:23 - 41:26More than half of our prosperity is based on exports.
-
41:26 - 41:31When other countries crash, we get hit almost as hard.
-
41:31 - 41:35And Swedish hosing prices have risen during the crisis
-
41:35 - 41:39despite the recession and despite the rising unemployment
-
41:39 - 41:43but because of low interest rates and a government mortgage company,
-
41:43 - 41:47SBAB, making loans easier to get.
-
41:47 - 41:51Swedes have never carried more debt in relation to their income.
-
41:51 - 41:55Doesn’t all of this sound very familiar?
-
41:56 - 41:58We have new bubbles everywhere
-
41:58 - 42:01so I am pretty worried about what’s going to happen.
-
42:01 - 42:05If we don’t want bubbles to burst, then don’t blow them up in the first place
-
42:05 - 42:06because all bubbles burst.
-
42:07 - 42:11If enough things can go wrong, some of them probably will.
-
42:12 - 42:16The question is just which needle will burst this bubble.
-
42:17 - 42:21Will it be new credit losses as banks take on greater risks
-
42:21 - 42:24knowing that the government considers them too big to fail?
-
42:26 - 42:31Or falling stock prices as interest rates rise and the steroids wear off?
-
42:32 - 42:36Will it be the Chinese economy, overheating?
-
42:36 - 42:40Or will it be a collapse of confidence in the US dollar?
-
42:44 - 42:47If we lose the confidence of our foreign lenders,
-
42:47 - 42:49and we must not allow that to happen,
-
42:49 - 42:51but if that were to happen,
-
42:51 - 42:53then there will be a dramatic decline of the dollar,
-
42:53 - 42:56a dramatic increase in interest rates,
-
42:56 - 42:59significant fuelling of inflation,
-
42:59 - 43:03a very, very deep recession and possibly depression
-
43:03 - 43:07that would be felt around the world.
-
43:07 - 43:11We must not allow that to happen.
-
43:12 - 43:14When the next bubble bursts,
-
43:14 - 43:17you cannot use the same emergency measures.
-
43:18 - 43:22You can’t lower interest rates that are already at rock bottom.
-
43:26 - 43:28You can’t stimulate the economy with borrowed money
-
43:28 - 43:32if an excessive national debt is the cause of the crisis.
-
43:34 - 43:36The governments could save the banks,
-
43:36 - 43:40but who can save the governments?
-
43:41 - 43:44Ultimately, there’s gonna be a price all around the world
-
43:44 - 43:45to be paid for this.
-
43:45 - 43:48And the longer it continues, the bigger that price is gonna be.
-
43:50 - 43:52You know, this really is a moral question.
-
43:52 - 43:56I mean, I can give you plenty of big and bad numbers.
-
43:56 - 43:59You know, when you talk about tens of trillions of dollars,
-
43:59 - 44:01it’s just hard to imagine.
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44:01 - 44:03But you have to put a face on it.
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44:03 - 44:07And to me I put my children’s and my grandchildren’s face on it.
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44:07 - 44:10It’s their future that we’re mortgaging.
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44:11 - 44:14When we tell people that there’s going to be a bailout bubble
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44:14 - 44:17and they see the world equity markets up 50 or 60%,
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44:17 - 44:20they don’t want to believe it’s another bubble.
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44:20 - 44:23They want to step right up back to that table
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44:23 - 44:27and throw their dice and try to win their hand
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44:27 - 44:30at the wheel of fortune that Wall Street’s spinning.
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44:30 - 44:34So people still don’t want to believe that the worst is yet to come.
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44:37 - 44:41It’s easy to think of these predictions as much too gloomy
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44:41 - 44:45but that is exactly what people said the last time.
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44:45 - 44:50When these experts predicted the 2008 financial crisis.
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44:50 - 44:53They were laughed at in the media.
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45:19 - 45:22We can do it. But we need to do it soon
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45:22 - 45:28because the clock is ticking and time is not working in our favor.
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45:35 - 45:38[Based on the book “Financial Fiasco” by Johan Norberg]
- Title:
- Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis
- Description:
-
US announce deal to lift debt limit
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With the US raising their debt ceiling, are we in a global bail-out bubble that will eventually burst? This doc offers a fresh insight into the greatest economic crisis of our age: the one still awaiting us.
The financial storm that has rocked the world began brewing in the US when congress pushed the idea of home ownership for all, propping up those who couldn't make the down payments. When it all went wrong the government promised the biggest financial stimulus packages in history and gargantuan bailouts. But what crazed logic is that: propping up debt with more debt? "They're giving alcohol to a drunk: it just sets him up for a bigger hangover."
July 2010
- Video Language:
- English
- Duration:
- 46:22
Alexandre Clemente edited English subtitles for Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis | ||
josefec added a translation |