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8. Case Study: The Rotavirus Vaccine

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    Hi, my name is Paul Offit. I'm from the Children's Hospital, Philadelphia and the
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    Perelman School of Medicine of the University of Pennsylvania.
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    What I thought I would talk about in this lecture is rotavirus vaccines.
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    And it's the only, actually, what I'll talk just about one specific vaccine for the whole lecture.
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    And it's not because I think rotaviruses are especially important among the vaccines,
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    rather it's because I actually was fortunate enough to be part
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    of the team at Children's Hospital, Philadelphia that developed this vaccine.
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    So I really watched it go from, from early research through development and so
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    basically from bench to bedside and it was an educational process for me.
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    And so I thought it would be fun to kind of go through this story.
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    So rotaviruses are a virus that infects the small intestine and it causes fever and vomiting
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    and water loss or dehydration in young children.
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    This is a study done by Bill Rodriguez at the Children's Hospital in DC.
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    And he looked at rotavirus as compared to other viruses that cause the so-called stomach viruses,
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    and found that rotaviruses were particularly capable of causing vomiting and dehydration.
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    And that's why, when you have the stomach virus, you sort of lose water when you have dehydra-
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    when you have diarrhea, you lose water when you have fever,
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    and it's hard to rehydrate yourself when you're vomiting.
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    So that's sort of those three things together can rapidly lead to dehydration,
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    which can cause hospitalization, and death.
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    This is just a stained section of the small intestine showing the virus infecting the intestine.
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    And what you can see here is that,
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    if you look here at this sort of, these kind of finger-like projections, so-called villi, into the small intestine,
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    You can see that the virus is infecting these cells that are detected
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    as so-called mature epithelial cells that line the intestine.
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    That's what rotaviruses do. They infect those cells, and they damage those cells,
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    and they make it very difficult to resorb water.
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    And it causes diarrhea, and it causes vomiting, and it causes dehydration.
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    So, every year, in the United States, prior to the vaccines are being licensed and used,
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    which was around 2006, rotavirus accounts for about 2.7 million cases, about 500,000 doctor visits,
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    about 270,000 emergency department visits, 70,000 hospitalizations, and 20-60 deaths each year.
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    If you assume a broad cohort between 3.5 and 4 million children every year in the U.S.,
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    that meant that about 1 out of every 50 children born in the United States would be hospitalized
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    with dehydration secondary to rotavirus infection.
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    Those numbers are dramatically decreased since the vaccine came. And then we'll talk about that.
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    In the developing world, rotavirus is a killer. It accounts for about 500,000 deaths a year.
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    That means about 2,000 children die every day from this virus, from the dehydration caused by this virus.
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    Actually, it's the single agent. It's one of the most important killers of infants and young children in the world.
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    And for that reason there was a tremendous amount of interest
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    both publicly and privately to try develop a vaccine to prevent it.
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    Now, the original idea on how to make a vaccine, and it's sort of Edward Jenner-like approach.
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    And I talked about Edward Jenner in another lecture, in a history of vaccines lecture.
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    But the initial idea was why - since all mammals that live
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    on the face of the earth have their own rotavirus strain -
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    why don't we actually do the same thing that Edward Jenner did?
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    Remember, Edward Jenner used the cowpox virus to protect against human smallpox.
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    He - we now know--he didn't know that, but we now know the cowpox is similar enough to,
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    was similar enough to human smallpox, that infection with one could prevent disease caused by the other.
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    So, really, that was the same thinking here was
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    'why not use a non-human rotavirus strain to protect against human rotavirus?'
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    This just shows you all the [inaudible] species that could be affected by rotavirus.
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    But species barriers are high, meaning that as it was true, smallpox were,
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    cowpox could cause significant disease in cows but not people,
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    and human smallpox could cause significant disease in human but not cows. That's also true here.
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    So for example, cow rotavirus could cause severe vomiting and diarrhea in cows,
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    but really doesn't do that in people. And vice versa, human rotaviruses really don't cause disease in cows.
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    So, it's the species barriers that are high, and that was the original idea.
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    So what happened was, there was a group at the National Institute of Health,
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    headed by Al Kapikian, Rob Chanock, Taka Hoshino, Harry Greenberg, Jorge Flores and others;
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    who looked at a strain called RRV. Now that strain stands for Resist Rotavirus.
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    This was a virus, a rotavirus strain that was isolated from a monkey in Northern California in the 1980's
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    by H. Milerby. That virus was then purified by growing it in cell culture, and not so much weakened.
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    The notion was that it would be weakened in humans because it wasn't a human virus.
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    This is sort of the same idea Edward Jenner had.
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    And when the vaccine was then given by mouth at 2, 4, and 6 months of age
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    to children in Sweden, and in Finland, it worked.
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    It seemed to protect against the moderate to severe dehydration
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    as it's shown on the first two rows on the slide.
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    But when the vaccine was then tested in Rochester, NY in a trial; it didn't seem to work.
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    So, I think what people concluded after this series of trial was that a non-human virus - in this case, a monkey virus -
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    was inconsistently capable of protecting against human rotavirus disease.
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    Now we worked, and by we, I mean Stanley Plotkin and Fred Clark, who headed this program;
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    worked at Children's Hospital, Philadelphia; with a strain called WC3.
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    And that was actually isolated from a calf with diarrhea at the Kenneth Square facility
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    which is the large animal facility, the , the veterinary school here at the University of Pennsylvania.
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    And we took that virus and then we went back to the Wistar Institute
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    and we purified it by passing it in a cell culture.
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    And since it was from the third calf that we tested, it was called WC3 or Wistar Calf Three.
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    We gave this virus by mouth to children at 2, 4 and 6 months of age in Philadelphia
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    and found that it was excellent at protecting against moderate to severe disease
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    and actually very good at protecting against even mild disease caused by rotavirus.
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    But when we then tested the vaccine in
    Cincinnati or in Bangui in the Central African Republic,
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    we found that it didn't work well. So basically we've found
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    with the calf strain exactly the same
    thing that the NIH researchers had found
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    with a simian strain, a monkey strain.
    That the protection against rotavirus could occur
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    with non-human strains, but it was inconsistent in it's ability to protect.
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    So it was really back to the drawing board. And this slide shows what
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    the drawing board was. We, we needed to
    determine which rotavirus proteins were responsible
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    for evoking virus specific neutralizing antibodies. In other words,
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    what rotovirus proteins induce protective
    immunity and which rotovirus proteins
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    were responsible for viral virulence. So it is
    the way that you make any vaccine.
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    You're really trying, you're trying to separate
    out the part of the, in this case, the virus
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    that is pathogenic, that is disease causing from the part of the virus
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    that induces an immune response which is
    protective. Hoping in this case
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    that the genes that are responsible for making the proteins that cause disease are different
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    from the genes that are required to make the proteins
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    that induce a protective immune response. So
    just a brief word about rotavirus structure,
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    the cartoon of the rotavirus particle is shown on the right and there are two proteins
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    to focus on. One is the protein called VP4 which stands for
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    viral protein four. It's the viral protein that's responsible for
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    binding to cells before it infects them.
    It's also called a P protein,
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    or a P serotype and you'll see what I mean by
    that in a second. P, just because it's sensitive to
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    proteases. Proteases are proteins that cleave proteins.
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    and this, in order for the virus actually
    to enter the cell that VP4 needs to be
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    cleaved to two smaller proteins called VP5
    and VP8. The other protein defunct to
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    focus on is called VP7, which just stands
    for Viral Protein seven. And that's kind
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    of a coat protein. But again, on the
    surface of the virus. And it it's a
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    glyco-protein, so it's also called a, a G
    protein. I'll talk about that also in a second;
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    so, two surface proteins, VP4 and VP7.
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    And as a general rule when you're trying to protect against viral infections, you want to try and make
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    antibodies to the surface of a virus; so to this, surface of a bacteria.
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    Because that would then prevent the virus or
    bacteria from binding to a cell, entering a cell
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    and causing disease. It's sort of a universal truth of vaccines. You're really,
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    for the most part, trying to prevent
    virus-cell binding.
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    Then, the rotavirus genome consists of eleven separate
    segments of double stranded RNA.
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    And if you look at sort of, well, column A if
    you take the virus
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    and you disrupt it with a, just a detergent and then you
    put it on top of,
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    so called, poly-acrylamide gel which is just a plastic
    mesh and then you take the virus
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    and you run it down with an electric current. You
    can actually separate those individual
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    double strained RNA segments in.. by size.
    So you can see the, the so called electropherotype of
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    of virus A. And virus A and virus B are different.
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    They're different strains therefore they
    have different ways in which their double-stranded RNA
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    segments migrate in this gel.
    Now, if you take those two
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    viruses and you co-infect cells at the
    same time,
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    you find that about 20 percent of the time, the progeny viruses that are generated
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    actually are reassorted viruses. Which is to say
    that they're a combination of the two viruses.
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    So you can see at the virus strain on the right has all of its genes from
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    virus A, and only one gene from virus B.
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    Well, if virus A and virus B are different within their capacity to cause disease in experimental animals,
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    in our case, we looked at mice, then you can
    figure out the genetics of virulence.
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    If those two strains are different with
    regard to their ability to induce
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    neutralizing antibodies in the serum, then,
    you can say - - you can figure out the
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    genetics of serotype which is to say that,
    that you can distinguish viruses based on
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    their ability to evoke antibodies which
    neutralize specific strains or specific serotypes.
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    And so, again, by making these reassortant viruses as you see on the right,
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    you can figure out the genetics of virulence.
    You can figure out the genetics of
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    serotype, or said another way,
    neutralization phenotype, or said another way,
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    just the genes responsible for evoking protective antibodies.
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    So to make a long story short, to sort of summarize
    ten years worth of work in one slide,
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    it's actually a little depressive. You can't do
    that, but to summarize ten years
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    of work in one slide, what we found was
    that each of those two surface proteins
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    evoked neutralizing antibodies or said
    another way, each of those two different proteins
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    evoked or determined serotype.
    So in a sense then, then rotaviruses actually
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    are very similar to the influenza viruses,
    which also are distinguished on the basis
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    of two surface proteins.
    And that's the way that those viruses are characterized.
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    H1N1, H5N1, the so-called bird flu.
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    That's the way that the influenza viruses are characterized and that's the way the rotaviruses are characterized also.
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    So, G1P1, for example.
    The addition studies that were done
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    by researchers at the National Institutes of Health specifically headed by
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    Taka Hoshino as well as researchers in our lab
    determined ultimately
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    that there were four genes that were required for virulence. So by doing studies in mice, we showed that really
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    there were four different genes, all of
    which were required for virulence.
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    Well, this was good news. It meant that you
    could include the genes, the human genes
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    that were responsible for invoking
    neutralizing antibodies, but as long as
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    you didn't include all four that were
    responsible for virulence, then the virus wouldn't be virulent,
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    or said another way, the virus shouldn't cause disease.
    And this was advanced beyond Max Tyler.
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    Remember we talked about Max Tyler in another lecture.
    And Max Tyler was the one working at
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    the Rockefeller Institute who showed
    that you could weaken viruses by
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    serially passaging them in a cell culture.
    But it was done really in a blind way, in a sense that
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    you would pass it in non-human cells like in his case,
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    you pass the Yellow Fever virus in mouse,
    mouse embryo cells, or chicken embryo cells.
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    And then he would take the virus out
    to see whether it was weak enough by testing it in people.
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    We, at Children's Hospital Philadelphia, at least had,
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    we thought we had defined virulence genes,
    by doing studies in mice.
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    But again, you know, these were studies in
    mice, you never really know
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    until you test it in people.
    And so, you have to go very slowly, when you test in people,
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    starting in adults, who you know have
    already been exposed to rotavirus and have antibodies
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    And then working your way down, ultimately to children who hadn't been exposed to the virus.
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    So this was reassuring, but, you really never know until
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    you do the right kind of studies.
    So the first rotavirus vaccine
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    was, that was out there was called a Rota
    shield. It was again the NIH reserchers
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    had taken their simian strain, their so called research rotavirus or RRV strain.
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    And they had it re-assorted it into that genes that determine
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    human serotype, so called G1, G2, and G4.
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    They assumed that the RRV strain was similar not
    to the human G3, so there really there are
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    sort of four major human G serotypes;
    G1, G2, G3, G4 and [inaudible] take this,
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    this simian monkey strain.
    You can then reassort into those human genes that
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    determine those serotypes.
    And so that's what was done with this original vaccine.
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    And, and the vaccine was on the,
    was actually brought onto the market in August 1998.
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    It was on the market for about 10 months in the United States when this headline
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    was published in a CDC journal called
    Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
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    It was called intussusception among recipients of rotavirus vaccine in the United States,
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    1998 to 1999.
    And what had happened was, intussusception
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    is caused when the small intestine sort of folds into itself, or invaginates into itself
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    and gets stuck.
    And when that happens, there can be a critical loss
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    of blood supply to the intestine mucosal surface,
    which can cause intestinal mucosal surface damage
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    and bleeding.
    In addition, because the intestine has living on its surface,
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    trillions, literally, of bacteria.
    Those bacteria can then enter
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    the bloodstream and cause bloodstream
    infection, which can be overwhelming, even resulting
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    in death. So intussusception is an important medical problem. It's a serious
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    medical problem often requiring hospitalization.
    And so, the fact that,
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    the, the that headline appeared in the
    morbidity mortality weekly report was
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    really worrisome. And it was based on reports to VAERS, we've talked about in
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    another talk, the so-called Vaccine
    Adverse Events Reporting System.
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    This is a system that's passively, it's sort
    of a passive reporting system
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    to the FDA and the CDC.
    If you're worried that, a vaccine
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    could have caused a particular event, adverse event, then you can report it to this system. And then there
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    were fifteen cases of intussusception were reported
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    to various following Rotashield.
    What was worrying, worrisome, was that
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    thirteen of those fifteen cases occurred after the first dose, which sort of lends to
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    the biological plausibility of the fact that these two things were causally associated.
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    Eleven of those thirteen cases, again, recur within seven days of vaccine administration,
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    which is what you would expect if the vaccine was causing it. An eighth of those thirteen cases
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    occurred in children 2-3 months of age.
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    Now, intussusception occurs anyway. Intussusception occurs in children before there was a Rotavirus vaccine.
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    But, it really occurred primarily in the 5-9 month-old.
    So the thinking was that
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    now that we were seeing it in 2-3 months of age,
    when these kids were getting vaccinated,
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    that again lent the fact at least the fact that this notion,
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    that the, that the vaccine was causing
    the intussusception was biologically plausible.
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    So the way that you answer this,
    the question, is to do the kinds of study
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    that were done by Trudy Murphy and her co-workers,
    and reported in
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    the New England Journal of Medicine. The CDC
    really took the lead on this.
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    Jeff Koplan, who was the head of the CDC at the time, stopped doing some other projects,
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    lot of money into this, to see whether or
    not that association between
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    intussusception and vaccination was
    temporal, or causal.
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    And, and you gotta take your hat off to this group.
    That the minute that they saw something
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    that might have been problematic, they,
    they immediately addressed it, and found that
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    if you received the rotavirus vaccine,
    and your first dose was
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    you received your first dose at 1-2 months of age,
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    or 3-5 months of age, or 5-8 months of age,
    that within a week of getting that vaccine,
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    you had a 25 to 30 fold increased risk
    of getting the disease --
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    getting the intussception
    than if you didn't get the vaccine.
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    Similarly, there was a statistically signifigant increase,
    if you, within 2 weeks of getting the vaccine,
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    but not greater than 2 weeks after getting the vaccine.
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    So this was supportive of the notion that, the
    rot-, the intussusception following Rotashield vaccine
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    was not a, just a temporal association,
    but was, in fact, a causal association
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    that the vaccine actually was causing
    this intestinal blockage.
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    For that reason, then the company had actually decided to
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    withdraw the, the their vaccine from the
    market and, and that, that was done after
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    the vaccine had been on the market for
    about ten months. Now, you could argue
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    that there is a difference between,
    relative risk and attributable risk.
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    Relative risk, as we saw, was 25 to 30 to
    one, following that vaccine.
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    But the real risk or the attributed risk was
    roughly 1 per 10,000. So let me try and
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    give you an example of that. That if I am, if I
    walk across the street in front of my
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    house, I have a certain risk of being hit
    by a car. That would, no doubt, be much
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    greater than the risk than if I was just
    standing. On the, the just in my doorstep
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    in front of my house. And so the relative
    risk would be very high. It could be a
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    1,000 to 1. But still the attributable
    risk is, is very low. I mean, I cross the
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    street in front of my house all the time
    and don't get hit by a car. That was true here.
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    So while the, the relative risk was high,
    the attributable risk was pretty low.
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    Still 1 in 10,000 recipients.
    And you could argue that if you took a
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    theoretical million children who either
    did or didn't get the vaccine. Far more
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    who didn't get the vaccine would have been
    hospitalized. And, and then frankly, even
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    five to ten fold more would have died from
    not getting the vaccine. Because Rotavirus
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    kills children even in this, in the United
    States. But I think at the time, the
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    disease wasn't perceived to be terribly
    dangerous. Certainly no one wanted to get
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    something that you knew could have caused
    intus susception and there was one child
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    who died of intussusception following this
    vaccine even though six to twelve will die
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    from not having received the vaccine among
    a million children. So you could have made
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    the argument that even with that adverse
    event that still the benefits outweigh the
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    risk, but that's not the way that the
    played out at the time and so the vaccine
  • 19:16 - 19:21
    was taken off the market. Now, I think the
    saddest part of this, and the biggest
  • 19:21 - 19:25
    tragedy, is that there was a World Health
    Organization meeting held in February of
  • 19:25 - 19:29
    2000. So it was about four months after
    the withdrawal of Rotashield from the
  • 19:29 - 19:32
    United States, where the company was
    great. I mean, wyeth made this vaccine,
  • 19:32 - 19:36
    stood up and said, we, we, we'll give you
    the virus, the vaccine strains. We will
  • 19:36 - 19:40
    give you, the you know, the technology on
    how to make it. We will give you the cell
  • 19:40 - 19:44
    substrate on which we grew this,
    thisvaccine. We'll help you build the
  • 19:44 - 19:48
    buildings. Because the Wyeth knew that
    they had a technology that now they were
  • 19:48 - 19:52
    not giving to American children. They
    could've saved. As many as 2000 lives a
  • 19:52 - 19:56
    day in the developing world. But, But
    count-, country after country stood up and
  • 19:56 - 20:00
    said, you know, if it's not safe for our
    children, it not - if it's not safe for
  • 20:00 - 20:04
    America's children, then it's not safe for
    our children, therefore, we're not going
  • 20:04 - 20:07
    to, to use it. Even though the risk
    benefit ratio was obviously very different
  • 20:07 - 20:11
    in the developing world. So, I think the
    tragedy was, if in this whole story, is
  • 20:11 - 20:14
    that for seven years, a technology that
    could have saved a lot of lives in the
  • 20:14 - 20:18
    developing world, and certainly even have
    prevented a lot of suffering in the United
  • 20:18 - 20:22
    States, sat on the shelf. And so, two
    other, companies actually stepped forward
  • 20:22 - 20:27
    to make vaccines. One of them was Merkin
    Company, who, who, in collaboration with,
  • 20:27 - 20:31
    researchers at Children's Hospital of
    Philadelphia, developed this, this next
  • 20:31 - 20:35
    vaccine. And again, it used that bovine
    strain that I talked to you about, that's,
  • 20:35 - 20:39
    that's called iii.'Cause we certainly knew
    that, that virus was safe in children. It
  • 20:39 - 20:43
    just didn't seem to be, consistently
    protective enough to make it a vaccine.
  • 20:43 - 20:48
    And so what was done, was the same thing
    really that was done with the RotaShield
  • 20:48 - 20:53
    vaccine, which was to make a series of
    reassortant vaccines. And again, we talked
  • 20:53 - 20:58
    about reassortants to some extent in the
    in the history of vaccines talk. That
  • 20:58 - 21:03
    included those human genes that, that
    represented those, the, the proteins that
  • 21:03 - 21:08
    were responsible for, for a serotypes G1,
    G2, G3 and G4, as well as one of the, the
  • 21:08 - 21:12
    P serotypes, so called P1. So that's,
    that's what the RotaTeq vaccine was. It
  • 21:12 - 21:18
    was given. As three doses by mouth at two,
    four and six months of age to, to
  • 21:18 - 21:24
    children, It's This. Sorry, the, the, the
    dose was 1.6 *ten^6 plaque forming units*
  • 21:24 - 21:28
    per strain. A plaque form unit is, is just
    when you test a virus. In cell culture,
  • 21:28 - 21:33
    the virus can reproduce themselves, and
    destroy cells, as well as cells in the
  • 21:33 - 21:37
    immediate area, which causes this sort of
    plaque in the, in the or hole in the
  • 21:37 - 21:41
    culture, and that's how you determine
    that. But the important to know here is
  • 21:41 - 21:46
    that it was three doses given by mouth at
    two, four, and six months of age. There
  • 21:46 - 21:50
    were some advantages of the bovine strain,
    because the cows are not as close
  • 21:50 - 21:55
    phylogenetically to humans as primates
    are. The there actually was a. To provide,
  • 21:55 - 21:59
    less, for instance of sort of these common
    less adverse events because of our
  • 21:59 - 22:03
    assisted reproduced self as well. So I
    think the important thing here is, is that
  • 22:03 - 22:07
    the vaccine was tested in, in more than
    70,000 children prospectively, in eleven
  • 22:07 - 22:12
    countries It took four years to do this
    study, it probably cost about 350 million
  • 22:12 - 22:16
    dollars to do the definitive phase three
    trial of this vaccine. And what was found
  • 22:16 - 22:20
    was that the vaccine was capable of
    preventing any roto virus disease being
  • 22:20 - 22:24
    mild, moderate or severe disease at about
    74%, which is roughly the equivalent of
  • 22:24 - 22:27
    what natural infection capacity is to
    protect against roto virus disea se.
  • 22:27 - 22:33
    Disease, Efficacy against severe disease
    was 98%, against rotavirus
  • 22:33 - 22:37
    hospitalizations 94%, against rotavirus
    doctor visits 86%, and there was no
  • 22:37 - 22:42
    clinically significant increase in fever.
    Or vomiting or diarrhea. Listlessness,
  • 22:42 - 22:46
    lethargy, or poor feeding versus placebo.
    So, the vaccine appeared to be safe and
  • 22:46 - 22:50
    appeared to be effective. Importantly,
    regarding [inaudible], within fourteen
  • 22:50 - 22:55
    days of any dose, there was only one case
    of in the vaccine group a one in the
  • 22:55 - 22:59
    placebo group. Within 42 days of any dose,
    [inaudible] six, six weeks of any dose,
  • 22:59 - 23:03
    there was six in the vaccine group, five
    in the placebo group. And within one year
  • 23:03 - 23:07
    again, twelve in the vaccine and fifteen
    in the placebo group. So, again, the
  • 23:07 - 23:11
    vaccine didn't appear to, to cause
    [inaudible] or prevent [inaudible]. And so
  • 23:11 - 23:15
    those were, And, and we also have post
    licensure data that I'll talk about a
  • 23:15 - 23:19
    little later. [inaudible] has been
    introduced, this vaccine has been
  • 23:19 - 23:24
    introduced into the developing world.
    Specifically in Nicaragua, Bangladesh,
  • 23:24 - 23:28
    Vietnam, Ghana, Mali. And just within this
    past week Rwanda. And that's a tribute to
  • 23:28 - 23:33
    the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, who
    have made that possible. you know, the,
  • 23:33 - 23:37
    although the World Health Organization
    certainly considers all the [inaudible].
  • 23:37 - 23:41
    Caused by rotavirus important and, and
    worthy of prevention. The World Health
  • 23:41 - 23:45
    Organization doesn't really have the money
    to introduce this vaccine in the
  • 23:45 - 23:49
    developing world and, and frankly or the
    countries, the countries also don't have
  • 23:49 - 23:53
    the money. So, that Bill and Melinda Gates
    choose to spend their money by preventing
  • 23:53 - 23:57
    a disease which causes a lot of suffering
    and death in the developing world is a
  • 23:57 - 24:00
    tribute to them. Now there's, there's
    another rotavirus vaccine that, that's,
  • 24:00 - 24:05
    that's developed, that was developed by
    researchers at Children's Hospital in
  • 24:05 - 24:09
    Cincinnati specifically Dick Ward and
    David Bernstein, using the more classic
  • 24:09 - 24:13
    way of making a vaccine, a live weakened.
    Vaccine, which was to take the vi rus, and
  • 24:13 - 24:17
    serially [inaudible] in non human cells as
    a way of attenuating it. This vaccine is
  • 24:17 - 24:21
    given as two doses by mouth, which is an
    advantage. It's one fewer dose. At two,
  • 24:21 - 24:25
    two to three, and then four to five months
    of age. It's given at a somewhat lesser,
  • 24:26 - 24:29
    dose. Because the virus is, is a human
    virus. So therefore, somewhat better at
  • 24:29 - 24:33
    reproducing itself in the intestine than
    the bovine strain was. The, the
  • 24:33 - 24:37
    researchers at children's hospital in
    Cincinatti, in collaboration with
  • 24:37 - 24:41
    GlaxoSmithKline, did a study of, 60, more
    than 63,000 infants who were given this
  • 24:41 - 24:45
    vaccine at two to four months of age. And
    the studies were performed in Latin
  • 24:45 - 24:50
    American countries as well as Finland and
    the vaccine worked very well, preventing a
  • 24:50 - 24:54
    severe disease about a, [inaudible] an
    efficacy rate of 85 percent and preventing
  • 24:54 - 24:59
    80, hospitalizations at a rate of about
    85%. Rotateq. Was introduced in the United
  • 24:59 - 25:03
    States in 2006. Rotarix in the United
    States in 2008. Although Rotarix was
  • 25:03 - 25:08
    introduced in the developing world also in
    2-, 2006. And, what we found was that.
  • 25:08 - 25:12
    there was a 50, even in the US, 50 percent
    immunization rate causing 80 to 90 percent
  • 25:12 - 25:17
    reduction in hospitalization. So it's a
    there is her immunity that is being
  • 25:17 - 25:21
    induced by these two vaccines. So, so what
    about an [inaudible]. Why this, the Rota
  • 25:21 - 25:26
    Virus vaccine, why did Rota shield cause
    an [inaudible] interest. There were data
  • 25:26 - 25:31
    presented from Brazil, Mexico, Australia
    and the United States on October
  • 25:31 - 25:36
    twenty-eighth, 2000 [inaudible] that show
    the [inaudible] was actually was a rare
  • 25:36 - 25:40
    consequence Rota risk in Mexico and
    Australia. Not at the one in 10,000 level
  • 25:40 - 25:46
    that was seen for Rota, Rota Shield. But,
    but more an attributable risk of one per
  • 25:46 - 25:50
    60,000 or 90,000 doses. And also, for
    RotaTeq as well, intussusception was a
  • 25:50 - 25:55
    rare consequence in Australia, with an
    attributable risk again between sort of,
  • 25:55 - 25:59
    60,000 and 90,000 doses. So it now looks
    like all three Rotavirus vaccines,
  • 25:59 - 26:04
    including Rotarix, which is simply an
    attenuated human Rotavirus strain, causes
  • 26:04 - 26:09
    intussusceptio N. So it sort of causes us
    to re-evaluate why. Rotashield caused
  • 26:09 - 26:14
    intussusception, I think the most likely
    reason is that natural rotavirus infection
  • 26:14 - 26:19
    is also a rare cause of intussusception.
    So then the question becomes which is
  • 26:19 - 26:23
    rarer, Intussusception caused by. By the
    vaccine, or intussusception caused by the
  • 26:23 - 26:26
    disease. Because remember the vaccine
    prevents the disease. So if, if
  • 26:26 - 26:31
    intussusception caused by the, the vaccine
    is more common than intussusception caused
  • 26:31 - 26:35
    by the. The, the natural virus, then, the
    rates of interception should go up in
  • 26:35 - 26:40
    countries that use the vaccine. Conversely
    if, if interception caused by the. The
  • 26:40 - 26:44
    natural virus is more common, then
    [inaudible] caused by the vaccine, given
  • 26:44 - 26:47
    that the vaccine prevents natural
    infection. Then as you introduce the
  • 26:47 - 26:51
    vaccine, rates of [inaudible] should,
    should go down. And sort of all of the
  • 26:51 - 26:55
    evidence to date, is it certainly raises
    the [inaudible], the [inaudible] seem to
  • 26:55 - 26:59
    be going up, and if anything they seem to
    be going down. A little. So I think that
  • 26:59 - 27:03
    what we've learned is that in the long
    run, that [inaudible] is probably is a
  • 27:03 - 27:07
    consequence of the natural infection. It's
    probably to some extent prevented by, by
  • 27:07 - 27:11
    vaccination. I mean it's interesting to
    know what, what, what had happened if we
  • 27:11 - 27:15
    had found out that [inaudible] shield had
    caused [inaudible]. This is after four
  • 27:15 - 27:18
    years after it had already been
    introduced. Because now, we know that
  • 27:18 - 27:22
    rotarix and rota, rotatech are two more
    recent vaccines for saving lives in the
  • 27:22 - 27:26
    developing world are certainly preventing
    hospitalizations and suffering in
  • 27:26 - 27:29
    developed countries like the United
    States. I wondered whether we would have
  • 27:29 - 27:34
    still made the same decision rotashield
    that we found out that it was a rare cause
  • 27:34 - 27:37
    of [inaudible] four years later. So I'll
    stop right there and thank you for your atte
Title:
8. Case Study: The Rotavirus Vaccine
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