[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.54,0:00:13.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.51,0:00:16.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, yes, I'm Hannah Fry,\NI am a mathematician,\N
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.08,0:00:20.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and today I want to talk to you\Nabout the mathematics of love.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.94,0:00:22.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think that we can all agree
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.68,0:00:27.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that mathematicians\Nare famously excellent at finding love.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.60,0:00:31.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's not just\Nbecause of our dashing personalities,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.04,0:00:35.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,superior conversational skills\Nand excellent pencil cases.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.54,0:00:40.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's also because we've actually done\Nan awful lot of work into the maths
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.07,0:00:42.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how to find the perfect partner.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.46,0:00:45.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, in my favorite paper\Non the subject, which is entitled,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.88,0:00:49.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" -\N(Laughter) -
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.37,0:00:53.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Peter Backus tries to rate\Nhis chances of finding love.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.09,0:00:55.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.46,0:00:57.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of all of the available women in the U.K.,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.54,0:01:00.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all Peter's looking for\Nis somebody who lives near him,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.96,0:01:02.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody in the right age range,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.86,0:01:05.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody with a university degree,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.94,0:01:08.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody he's likely to get on well with,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.30,0:01:10.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody who's likely to be attractive,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.44,0:01:12.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody who's likely\Nto find him attractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.84,0:01:15.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.13,0:01:20.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And comes up with an estimate\Nof 26 women in the whole of the UK.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.44,0:01:23.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not looking very good, is it Peter?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.60,0:01:26.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, just to put that into perspective,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.12,0:01:29.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's about 400 times fewer\Nthan the best estimates
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.44,0:01:32.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how many intelligent\Nextraterrestrial life forms there are.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.44,0:01:37.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it also gives Peter\Na 1 in 285,000 chance
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.68,0:01:40.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of bumping into any one\Nof these special ladies
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.54,0:01:42.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a given night out.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.13,0:01:44.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd like to think\Nthat's why mathematicians
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.17,0:01:46.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't really bother\Ngoing on nights out anymore.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.33,0:01:49.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The thing is that I personally
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.16,0:01:51.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't subscribe\Nto such a pessimistic view.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.75,0:01:54.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I know,\Njust as well as all of you do,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.34,0:01:56.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that love doesn't really work like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.71,0:02:01.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Human emotion isn't neatly ordered\Nand rational and easily predictable.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.87,0:02:04.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I also know that that doesn't mean
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.40,0:02:07.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that mathematics hasn't got something\Nthat it can offer us
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.49,0:02:10.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because, love, as with most of life,\Nis full of patterns
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.97,0:02:15.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and mathematics is, ultimately,\Nall about the study of patterns.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.75,0:02:19.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Patterns from predicting the weather\Nto the fluctuations in the stock market,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.92,0:02:23.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the movement of the planets\Nor the growth of cities.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.23,0:02:25.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if we're being honest,\Nnone of those things
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.78,0:02:29.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are exactly neatly ordered\Nand easily predictable, either.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.50,0:02:34.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I believe that mathematics\Nis so powerful that it has the potential
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.66,0:02:38.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to offer us a new way of looking\Nat almost anything.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.10,0:02:41.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even something as mysterious as love.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.47,0:02:43.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, to try to persuade you
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.52,0:02:48.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how totally amazing, excellent\Nand relevant mathematics is,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.04,0:02:53.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to give you my top three\Nmathematically verifiable tips for love.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.29,0:02:59.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so Top Tip #1:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.49,0:03:03.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How to win at online dating.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.29,0:03:09.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So my favorite online dating website\Nis OkCupid,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.59,0:03:13.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not least because it was started\Nby a group of mathematicians.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.22,0:03:15.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, because they're mathematicians,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.29,0:03:16.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have been collecting data
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.72,0:03:19.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on everybody who uses their site\Nfor almost a decade.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.94,0:03:22.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they've been trying\Nto search for patterns
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.12,0:03:24.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the way that we talk about ourselves
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.04,0:03:26.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the way that we interact\Nwith each other
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.10,0:03:27.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on an online dating website.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.54,0:03:30.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they've come up with some\Nseriously interesting findings.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.45,0:03:32.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But my particular favorite
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.14,0:03:35.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that it turns out\Nthat on an online dating website,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.27,0:03:40.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how attractive you are\Ndoes not dictate how popular you are,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.82,0:03:44.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and actually, having people think\Nthat you're ugly
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.34,0:03:46.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can work to your advantage.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.22,0:03:49.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me show you how this works.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.90,0:03:53.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a thankfully voluntary\Nsection of OkCupid,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.12,0:03:57.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you are allowed to rate\Nhow attractive you think people are
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.47,0:03:59.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a scale between 1 and 5.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.16,0:04:02.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if we compare this score,\Nthe average score,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.90,0:04:05.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to how many messages\Na selection of people receive,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.79,0:04:07.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can begin to get a sense
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.45,0:04:11.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how attractiveness links to popularity\Non an online dating website.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.34,0:04:15.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the graph that the OkCupid guy\Nshave come up with.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.16,0:04:18.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the important thing to notice\Nis that it's not totally true
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.84,0:04:21.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the more attractive you are,\Nthe more messages you get.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.86,0:04:24.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, there's maybe a bit of a trend there,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.48,0:04:27.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's got an R squared\Nof absolutely naff all, let's be honest.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.65,0:04:31.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question arises then\Nof what is it about people up here
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.11,0:04:35.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are so much more popular\Nthan people down here,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.30,0:04:39.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even though they have the same\Nscore of attractiveness?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.17,0:04:43.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason why is that it's not just\Nstraight forward looks that are important.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.12,0:04:45.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me try to illustrate\Ntheir findings with an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.92,0:04:49.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you take someone like\NPortia de Rossi, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.04,0:04:53.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi\Nis a very beautiful woman.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.96,0:04:58.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nobody thinks that she's ugly,\Nbut she's not a supermodel, either.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.56,0:05:02.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you compare Portia de Rossi\Nto someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.43,0:05:08.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now, a lot of people,\Nmyself included, I should say,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.24,0:05:12.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think that Sarah Jessica Parker\Nis seriously fabulous
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.96,0:05:15.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and possibly one\Nof the most beautiful creatures
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.31,0:05:18.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have ever have walked\Non the face of the Earth.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.20,0:05:21.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But some other people,\Ni.e., most of the Internet,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.82,0:05:28.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seem to think that she looks\Na bit like a horse. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.14,0:05:33.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think that if you ask people\Nhow attractive they thought
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.97,0:05:36.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sarah Jessica Parker\Nor Portia de Rossi were,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.20,0:05:38.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you ask them to give them\Na score between 1 and 5,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.85,0:05:41.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I reckon that they'd average out\Nto have roughly the same score.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.100,0:05:44.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the way that people would vote\Nwould be very different.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.78,0:05:47.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So Portia's scores would\Nall be clustered around the 4
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.37,0:05:49.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because everybody agrees\Nthat she's very beautiful,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.77,0:05:52.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas Sarah Jessica Parker\Ncompletely divides opinion.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.44,0:05:54.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.64,0:05:57.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And actually it's this spread that counts.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.06,0:05:59.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's this spread\Nthat makes you more popular
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.42,0:06:01.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on an online Internet dating website.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.72,0:06:03.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what that means then
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.30,0:06:05.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that if some people\Nthink that you're attractive,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.76,0:06:07.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're actually better off
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.52,0:06:11.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,having some other people think\Nthat you're a massive minger.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.35,0:06:14.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's much better\Nthan everybody just thinking
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.76,0:06:17.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you're the cute girl next door.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.06,0:06:19.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think this begins\Nmakes a bit more sense
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.28,0:06:22.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you think in terms of the people\Nwho are sending these messages.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.60,0:06:24.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's say that you think\Nsomebody's attractive,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.93,0:06:28.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you suspect that other people\Nwon't necessarily be that interested.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.64,0:06:31.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That means there's\Nless competition for you
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.28,0:06:34.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's an extra incentive\Nfor you to get in touch.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.14,0:06:36.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas compare that to\Nif you think somebody is attractive
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.97,0:06:40.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you suspect that everybody\Nis going to think they're attractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.19,0:06:43.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, why would you bother\Nhumiliating yourself, let's be honest?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.85,0:06:46.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's where the really\Ninteresting part comes.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.06,0:06:49.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because when people choose the pictures\Nthat they use on an online dating website,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.95,0:06:52.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they often try to minimize the things
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.45,0:06:55.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they think some people\Nwill find unattractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.58,0:06:59.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The classic example is people who are,\Nperhaps, a little bit overweight
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.15,0:07:02.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deliberately choosing\Na very cropped photo,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.87,0:07:06.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or bald men, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.93,0:07:09.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deliberately choosing pictures\Nwhere they're wearing hats.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.77,0:07:12.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But actually this is the opposite\Nof what you should do
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.36,0:07:13.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you want to be successful.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.87,0:07:17.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You should really, instead, play up to\Nwhatever it is that makes you different,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.84,0:07:22.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if you think that some people\Nwill find it unattractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.16,0:07:25.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because the people who fancy you\Nare just going to fancy you anyway,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.40,0:07:29.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the unimportant losers who don't,\Nwell, they only play up to your advantage.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.87,0:07:34.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, Top Tip #2:\NHow to pick the perfect partner.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.35,0:07:37.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's imagine then\Nthat you're a roaring success
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.35,0:07:39.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the dating scene.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.14,0:07:43.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question arises of how do you then\Nconvert that success
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.30,0:07:47.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into longer-term happiness\Nand in particular,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.31,0:07:51.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do you decide\Nwhen is the right time to settle down?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.20,0:07:54.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now generally,\Nit's not advisable to just cash in
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.38,0:07:56.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and marry the first person\Nwho comes along
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.34,0:07:58.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and shows you any interest at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.46,0:08:01.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, equally, you don't really\Nwant to leave it too long
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.52,0:08:04.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you want to maximize your chance\Nof long-term happiness.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.84,0:08:08.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As my favorite author,\NJane Austen, puts it,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.44,0:08:10.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.80,0:08:14.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can never hope to feel or inspire\Naffection again."
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.13,0:08:16.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.97,0:08:19.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thanks a lot, Jane.\NWhat do you know about love?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.34,0:08:22.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question is then,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.84,0:08:25.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do you know when\Nis the right time to settle down
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.33,0:08:28.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,given all the people\Nthat you can date in your lifetime?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.04,0:08:31.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit\Nof mathematics that we can use
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.49,0:08:33.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to help us out here, called\Noptimal stopping theory.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.04,0:08:35.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's imagine then,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.58,0:08:37.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you start dating when you're 15
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.99,0:08:41.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and ideally, you'd like to be married\Nby the time that you're 35.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.11,0:08:43.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's a number of people
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.78,0:08:46.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you could potentially\Ndate across your lifetime,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.56,0:08:49.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they'll be at varying levels\Nof goodness.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.84,0:08:53.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the rules are that once you cash in\Nand get married,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.33,0:08:56.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can't look ahead to see\Nwhat you could have had,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.24,0:08:58.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and equally, you can't go back\Nand change your mind.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.73,0:09:00.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In my experience at least,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.18,0:09:03.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I find that typically people don't\Nmuch like being recalled
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.03,0:09:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,years after being passed up\Nfor somebody else, or that's just me.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.80,0:09:11.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the math says then\Nthat what you should do
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.24,0:09:14.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the first 37 percent\Nof your dating window,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.46,0:09:18.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you should just reject everybody\Nas serious marriage potential.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.36,0:09:20.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.60,0:09:24.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, you should pick\Nthe next person that comes along
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.10,0:09:27.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is better than everybody\Nthat you've seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.22,0:09:28.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here's the example.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.89,0:09:33.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now if you do this, it can be\Nmathematically proven, in fact,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.85,0:09:36.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this is the best possible way
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.40,0:09:40.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of maximizing your chances\Nof finding the perfect partner.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.77,0:09:45.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that\Nthis method does come with some risks.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.06,0:09:49.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For instance,\Nimagine if your perfect partner
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.38,0:09:52.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,appeared during your first 37 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.40,0:09:56.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, unfortunately,\Nyou'd have to reject them.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.22,0:09:59.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.86,0:10:01.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if you're following the maths,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.84,0:10:03.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm afraid no one else comes along
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.56,0:10:05.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's better than anyone\Nyou've seen before,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.69,0:10:09.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you have to go on\Nrejecting everyone and die alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.48,0:10:12.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.09,0:10:16.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Probably surrounded by cats\Nnibbling at your remains.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.07,0:10:21.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, another risk is,\Nlet's imagine, instead,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.26,0:10:24.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the first people that you dated\Nin your first 37 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.51,0:10:27.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are just incredibly dull,\Nboring, terrible people.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.57,0:10:31.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's okay,\Nbecause you're in your rejection phase -
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.85,0:10:35.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's okay,\Nbecause you're in your rejection phase,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.82,0:10:38.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so thats fine, you can reject them.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.64,0:10:41.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then imagine, the next person\Nto come along
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.50,0:10:44.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is just marginally less boring,\Ndull and terrible
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.07,0:10:48.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than everybody that you've seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.41,0:10:52.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if you are following the maths,\NI'm afraid you have to marry them
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.24,0:10:55.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and end up in a relationship\Nwhich is, frankly, suboptimal.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.03,0:10:57.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sorry about that.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.24,0:10:59.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I do think that there's\Nan opportunity here
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.50,0:11:02.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for Hallmark to cash in on\Nand really cater for this market.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.38,0:11:04.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A Valentine's Day card like this.\N(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.85,0:11:08.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"My darling husband,\Nyou are marginally less terrible
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.46,0:11:11.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the first 37 percent\Nof people I dated."
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.26,0:11:16.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's actually more romantic\Nthan I normally manage.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.92,0:11:21.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so this method doesn't give you\Na 100 percent success rate,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.30,0:11:25.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's no other possible\Nstrategy that can do any better.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.10,0:11:27.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And actually, in the wild,\Nthere are certain types
Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.82,0:11:31.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of fish which follow\Nand employ this exact strategy.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.04,0:11:33.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they reject every possible suitor\Nthat turns up
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.50,0:11:36.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the first 37 percent\Nof the mating season,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.62,0:11:40.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then they pick the next fish\Nthat comes along after that window
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.22,0:11:42.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.52,0:11:45.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than all of the fish\Nthat they've seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.21,0:11:49.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I also think that subconsciously,\Nhumans, we do sort of do this anyway.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.92,0:11:52.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We give ourselves a little bit of time\Nto play the field,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.94,0:11:56.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get a feel for the marketplace\Nor whatever when we're young.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.42,0:12:01.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we only start looking seriously\Nat potential marriage candidates
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.30,0:12:03.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:03.32,0:12:06.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think this is conclusive proof,\Nif ever it were needed,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.66,0:12:10.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that everybody's brains are prewired\Nto be just a little bit mathematical.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.89,0:12:12.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so that was Top Tip #2.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.97,0:12:16.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.71,0:12:20.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so let's imagine then\Nthat you picked your perfect partner
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.76,0:12:23.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you're settling into\Na lifelong relationship with them.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.84,0:12:28.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I like to think that everybody\Nwould ideally like to avoid divorce,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.60,0:12:32.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,apart from, I don't know,\NPiers Morgan's wife, maybe?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.90,0:12:37.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's a sad fact of modern life
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.08,0:12:40.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that 1 in 2 marriages\Nin the States ends in divorce,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.42,0:12:43.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the rest of the world\Nnot being far behind.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.99,0:12:46.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.01,0:12:49.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for thinking that the arguments\Nthat precede a marital breakup
Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.67,0:12:53.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are not an ideal candidate\Nfor mathematical investigation.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.44,0:12:55.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For one thing, it's very hard to know
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.25,0:12:58.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what you should be measuring\Nor what you should be quantifying.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:58.45,0:13:04.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this didn't stop a psychologist,\NJohn Gottman, who did exactly that.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:04.71,0:13:09.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gottman observed hundreds of couples\Nhaving a conversation
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.68,0:13:12.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and recorded, well,\Neverything you can think of.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.44,0:13:14.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he recorded what was said\Nin the conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:14.85,0:13:17.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he recorded their skin conductivity,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.19,0:13:19.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he recorded their facial expressions,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.03,0:13:21.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their heart rates, their blood pressure,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:21.02,0:13:25.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,basically everything apart from whether\Nor not the wife was actually always right,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.26,0:13:29.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which incidentally she totally is.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.61,0:13:33.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what Gottman and his team found
Dialogue: 0,0:13:33.14,0:13:36.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that one of the most important\Npredictors
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.15,0:13:38.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for whether or not a couple\Nis going to get divorced
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.62,0:13:43.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was how positive or negative each partner\Nwas being in the conversation.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.73,0:13:46.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, couples that were very low-risk
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.11,0:13:50.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scored a lot more positive points\Non Gottman's scale than negative.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.18,0:13:52.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas bad relationships,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.47,0:13:55.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by which I mean, probably\Ngoing to get divorced,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.50,0:14:00.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they found themselves\Ngetting into a spiral of negativity.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.74,0:14:02.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now just by using these very simple ideas,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.87,0:14:05.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gottman and his group were able to predict
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.43,0:14:08.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether a given couple\Nwas going to get divorced
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.15,0:14:10.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a 90 percent accuracy.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:11.14,0:14:14.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it wasn't until he teamed up\Nwith a mathematician, James Murray,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.52,0:14:16.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they really started to understand
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.53,0:14:20.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what causes these negativity spirals\Nand how they occur.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:20.58,0:14:22.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the results that they found
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.50,0:14:26.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think are just incredibly\Nimpressively simple and interesting.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.27,0:14:29.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here they are.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.36,0:14:35.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think that should be fairly clear.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:36.90,0:14:42.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So these equations, they predict how\Nthe wife or husband is going to respond
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.40,0:14:45.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in their next turn of the conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.29,0:14:47.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how positive or negative\Nthey're going to be.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.44,0:14:49.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these equations, they depend on
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.13,0:14:51.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the mood of the person\Nwhen they're on their own,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.49,0:14:54.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the mood of the person when\Nthey're with their partner,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:54.04,0:14:55.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but most importantly, they depend on
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.92,0:14:58.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how much the husband and wife\Ninfluence one another.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:59.19,0:15:01.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think it's important\Nto point out at this stage,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.82,0:15:05.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that these exact equations\Nhave also been shown
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.21,0:15:07.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be perfectly able at describing
Dialogue: 0,0:15:07.100,0:15:11.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what happens between two countries\Nin an arms race.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.98,0:15:14.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.60,0:15:19.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that - an arguing couple\Nspiraling into negativity
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.41,0:15:21.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and teetering on the brink of divorce -
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.48,0:15:25.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually mathematically equivalent\Nto the beginning of a nuclear war.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:25.59,0:15:27.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.46,0:15:30.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the really important term\Nin this equation
Dialogue: 0,0:15:30.67,0:15:33.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the influence that people\Nhave on one another,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.15,0:15:36.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in particular, something called\Nthe negativity threshold.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.31,0:15:38.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the negativity threshold,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.17,0:15:42.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can think of as\Nhow annoying the husband can be
Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.68,0:15:46.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before the wife starts to get\Nreally pissed off, and vice versa.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:47.28,0:15:51.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I always thought that good marriages\Nwere about compromise and understanding
Dialogue: 0,0:15:51.65,0:15:54.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and allowing the person\Nto have the space to be themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:54.59,0:15:57.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I would have thought that perhaps\Nthe most successful relationships
Dialogue: 0,0:15:57.89,0:16:00.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were ones where there was\Na really high negativity threshold.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:00.94,0:16:02.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Where couples let things go
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.88,0:16:05.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and only brought things up\Nif they really were a big deal.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:05.84,0:16:10.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But actually, the mathematics\Nand subsequent findings by the team
Dialogue: 0,0:16:10.06,0:16:12.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have shown the exact opposite is true.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.82,0:16:15.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The best couples,\Nor the most successful couples,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.38,0:16:18.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the ones with\Na really low negativity threshold.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.55,0:16:22.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the couples that don't let\Nanything go unnoticed
Dialogue: 0,0:16:22.77,0:16:25.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and allow each other\Nsome room to complain.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.71,0:16:30.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the couples that are continually\Ntrying to repair their own relationship,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:30.94,0:16:33.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have a much more positive\Noutlook on their marriage.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:33.88,0:16:35.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Couples that don't let things go
Dialogue: 0,0:16:35.83,0:16:40.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and couples that don't let trivial things\Nend up being a really big deal.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:41.40,0:16:46.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now of course, it takes bit more\Nthan just a low negativity threshold
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.57,0:16:50.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not compromising to have\Na successful relationship.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:50.87,0:16:53.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I think that it's quite interesting
Dialogue: 0,0:16:53.99,0:16:56.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to know that there is really\Nmathematical evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:16:56.37,0:16:59.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to say that you should never\Nlet the sun go down on your anger.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.64,0:17:01.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So those are my top three tips
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.67,0:17:04.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how maths can help you\Nwith love and relationships.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:04.71,0:17:07.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I hope\Nthat aside from their use as tips,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:07.02,0:17:11.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they also give you a little bit of insight\Ninto the power of mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.19,0:17:15.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because for me, equations and symbols\Naren't just a thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:15.78,0:17:20.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're a voice that speaks out\Nabout the incredible richness of nature
Dialogue: 0,0:17:20.35,0:17:22.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the startling simplicity
Dialogue: 0,0:17:22.50,0:17:27.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the patterns that twist and turn\Nand warp and evolve all around us,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:27.17,0:17:29.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from how the world works to how we behave.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:29.64,0:17:31.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I hope that perhaps,\Nfor just a couple of you,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:31.95,0:17:34.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a little bit of insight into\Nthe mathematics of love
Dialogue: 0,0:17:34.39,0:17:37.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can persuade you to have a little bit\Nmore love for mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:37.67,0:17:38.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:38.80,0:17:40.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)