[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.51,0:00:05.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today I want to talk to you\Nabout the mathematics of love.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.20,0:00:06.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think that we can all agree
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.85,0:00:10.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that mathematicians\Nare famously excellent at finding love.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.48,0:00:11.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.91,0:00:14.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's not just because\Nof our dashing personalities,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.90,0:00:19.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,superior conversational skills\Nand excellent pencil cases.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.08,0:00:23.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's also because we've actually done\Nan awful lot of work into the maths
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.85,0:00:26.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how to find the perfect partner.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.35,0:00:30.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, in my favorite paper\Non the subject, which is entitled,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.05,0:00:31.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.94,0:00:33.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.37,0:00:36.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Peter Backus tries to rate\Nhis chances of finding love.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.01,0:00:39.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.27,0:00:41.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of all of the available women in the UK,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.54,0:00:45.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all Peter's looking for\Nis somebody who lives near him,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.06,0:00:46.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody in the right age range,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.89,0:00:49.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody with a university degree,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.84,0:00:51.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody he's likely to get on well with,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.84,0:00:53.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody who's likely to be attractive,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.81,0:00:56.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody who's likely\Nto find him attractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.14,0:00:59.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.22,0:01:04.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And comes up with an estimate\Nof 26 women in the whole of the UK.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.03,0:01:05.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.24,0:01:07.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not looking very good, is it Peter?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.29,0:01:09.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, just to put that into perspective,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.27,0:01:12.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's about 400 times fewer\Nthan the best estimates
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.57,0:01:16.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how many intelligent\Nextraterrestrial life forms there are.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.30,0:01:21.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it also gives Peter\Na 1 in 285,000 chance
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.62,0:01:23.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of bumping into any one\Nof these special ladies
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.90,0:01:25.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a given night out.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.46,0:01:27.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd like to think\Nthat's why mathematicians
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.49,0:01:29.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't really bother\Ngoing on nights out anymore.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.11,0:01:33.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The thing is that I personally\Ndon't subscribe
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.39,0:01:35.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to such a pessimistic view.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.07,0:01:37.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I know,\Njust as well as all of you do,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.68,0:01:40.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that love doesn't really work like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.08,0:01:44.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Human emotion isn't neatly ordered\Nand rational and easily predictable.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.40,0:01:47.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I also know that that doesn't mean
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.64,0:01:50.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that mathematics hasn't got something\Nthat it can offer us,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.94,0:01:54.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because, love, as with most of life,\Nis full of patterns
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.72,0:01:59.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and mathematics is, ultimately,\Nall about the study of patterns.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.16,0:02:03.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Patterns from predicting the weather\Nto the fluctuations in the stock market,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.53,0:02:06.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the movement of the planets\Nor the growth of cities.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.59,0:02:08.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if we're being honest,\Nnone of those things
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.90,0:02:12.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are exactly neatly ordered\Nand easily predictable, either.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.97,0:02:18.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I believe that mathematics\Nis so powerful that it has the potential
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.17,0:02:21.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to offer us a new way of looking\Nat almost anything.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.51,0:02:24.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even something as mysterious as love.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.98,0:02:26.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, to try to persuade you
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.68,0:02:31.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how totally amazing, excellent\Nand relevant mathematics is,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.39,0:02:38.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to give you my top three\Nmathematically verifiable tips for love.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.65,0:02:40.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.44,0:02:42.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, so Top Tip #1:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.10,0:02:44.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How to win at online dating.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.57,0:02:49.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So my favorite online dating\Nwebsite is OkCupid,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.96,0:02:53.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not least because it was started\Nby a group of mathematicians.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.57,0:02:55.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, because they're mathematicians,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.34,0:02:56.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have been collecting data
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.84,0:03:00.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on everybody who uses their site\Nfor almost a decade.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.36,0:03:02.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they've been trying\Nto search for patterns
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.54,0:03:04.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the way that we talk about ourselves
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.42,0:03:06.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the way that we interact\Nwith each other
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.51,0:03:07.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on an online dating website.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.88,0:03:10.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they've come up with some\Nseriously interesting findings.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.82,0:03:12.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But my particular favorite
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.45,0:03:15.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that it turns out\Nthat on an online dating website,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.83,0:03:21.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how attractive you are\Ndoes not dictate how popular you are,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.51,0:03:25.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and actually, having people\Nthink that you're ugly
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.39,0:03:27.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can work to your advantage.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.47,0:03:28.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.64,0:03:30.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me show you how this works.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.34,0:03:34.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a thankfully voluntary\Nsection of OkCupid,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.74,0:03:37.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you are allowed to rate\Nhow attractive you think people are
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.56,0:03:39.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a scale between one and five.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.87,0:03:42.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if we compare this score,\Nthe average score,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.88,0:03:46.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to how many messages\Na selection of people receive,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.04,0:03:47.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can begin to get a sense
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.59,0:03:51.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how attractiveness links to popularity\Non an online dating website.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.02,0:03:55.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the graph the OkCupid guys\Nhave come up with.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.39,0:03:58.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the important thing to notice\Nis that it's not totally true
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.41,0:04:01.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the more attractive you are,\Nthe more messages you get.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.26,0:04:05.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question arises then\Nof what is it about people up here
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.54,0:04:09.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are so much more popular\Nthan people down here,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.42,0:04:12.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even though they have the same\Nscore of attractiveness?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.54,0:04:16.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason why is that it's not just\Nstraightforward looks that are important.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.70,0:04:19.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me try to illustrate\Ntheir findings with an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.53,0:04:23.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you take someone like\NPortia de Rossi, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.47,0:04:27.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi\Nis a very beautiful woman.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.98,0:04:31.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nobody thinks that she's ugly,\Nbut she's not a supermodel, either.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.72,0:04:36.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you compare Portia de Rossi\Nto someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.33,0:04:40.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now, a lot of people,\Nmyself included, I should say,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.04,0:04:44.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think that Sarah Jessica Parker\Nis seriously fabulous
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.32,0:04:46.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and possibly one\Nof the most beautiful creatures
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.99,0:04:49.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have ever have walked\Non the face of the Earth.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.40,0:04:54.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But some other people,\Ni.e., most of the Internet ...
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.19,0:04:56.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.29,0:04:58.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seem to think that she looks\Na bit like a horse.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.70,0:05:01.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.51,0:05:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think that if you ask people\Nhow attractive they thought
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.63,0:05:07.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Jessica Parker or Portia de Rossi were,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.56,0:05:10.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you ask them to give\Nthem a score between one and five
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.49,0:05:13.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I reckon that they'd average out\Nto have roughly the same score.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.54,0:05:16.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the way that people would vote\Nwould be very different.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.32,0:05:19.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So Portia's scores would\Nall be clustered around the four
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.05,0:05:21.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because everybody agrees\Nthat she's very beautiful,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.50,0:05:24.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas Sarah Jessica Parker\Ncompletely divides opinion.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.24,0:05:26.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.24,0:05:28.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And actually it's this spread that counts.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.62,0:05:30.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's this spread\Nthat makes you more popular
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.86,0:05:33.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on an online Internet dating website.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.06,0:05:34.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what that means then
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.28,0:05:36.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that if some people\Nthink that you're attractive,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.91,0:05:38.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're actually better off
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.79,0:05:42.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,having some other people\Nthink that you're a massive minger.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.94,0:05:46.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's much better\Nthan everybody just thinking
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.17,0:05:48.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you're the cute girl next door.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.26,0:05:50.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think this begins\Nto make a bit more sense
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.61,0:05:53.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you think in terms of the people\Nwho are sending these messages.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.90,0:05:56.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's say that you think\Nsomebody's attractive,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.28,0:06:00.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you suspect that other people\Nwon't necessarily be that interested.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.27,0:06:02.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That means there's\Nless competition for you
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.54,0:06:05.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's an extra incentive\Nfor you to get in touch.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.35,0:06:08.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas compare that\Nto if you think somebody is attractive
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.16,0:06:11.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you suspect that everybody\Nis going to think they're attractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.40,0:06:14.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, why would you bother\Nhumiliating yourself, let's be honest?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.08,0:06:17.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But here's where the really\Ninteresting part comes.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.49,0:06:21.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because when people choose the pictures\Nthat they use on an online dating website,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.70,0:06:23.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they often try to minimize the things
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.90,0:06:27.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they think some people\Nwill find unattractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.16,0:06:31.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The classic example is people\Nwho are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.22,0:06:33.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deliberately choosing\Na very cropped photo,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.68,0:06:35.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.06,0:06:36.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or bald men, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.84,0:06:39.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deliberately choosing pictures\Nwhere they're wearing hats.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.81,0:06:42.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But actually this is the opposite\Nof what you should do
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.43,0:06:43.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you want to be successful.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.84,0:06:45.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You should really, instead,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.20,0:06:48.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,play up to whatever it is\Nthat makes you different,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.38,0:06:52.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if you think that some people\Nwill find it unattractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.56,0:06:55.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because the people who fancy you\Nare just going to fancy you anyway,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.79,0:07:00.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the unimportant losers who don't,\Nwell, they only play up to your advantage.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.37,0:07:02.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, Top Tip #2:\NHow to pick the perfect partner.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.95,0:07:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's imagine then\Nthat you're a roaring success
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.62,0:07:07.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the dating scene.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.19,0:07:11.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question arises\Nof how do you then convert that success
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.75,0:07:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into longer-term happiness,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.32,0:07:19.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in particular, how do you decide\Nwhen is the right time to settle down?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.44,0:07:22.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now generally,\Nit's not advisable to just cash in
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.27,0:07:26.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and marry the first person who comes along\Nand shows you any interest at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.42,0:07:29.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, equally, you don't really\Nwant to leave it too long
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.56,0:07:32.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you want to maximize your chance\Nof long-term happiness.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.36,0:07:35.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As my favorite author,\NJane Austen, puts it,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.84,0:07:38.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.06,0:07:41.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can never hope to feel\Nor inspire affection again."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.52,0:07:44.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.21,0:07:45.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thanks a lot, Jane.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.41,0:07:46.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What do you know about love?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.85,0:07:47.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.96,0:07:49.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question is then,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.89,0:07:52.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do you know when\Nis the right time to settle down,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.50,0:07:55.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,given all the people\Nthat you can date in your lifetime?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.15,0:07:58.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit\Nof mathematics that we can use
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.63,0:08:01.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to help us out here,\Ncalled optimal stopping theory.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.20,0:08:03.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's imagine, then,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.20,0:08:05.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you start dating when you're 15
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.83,0:08:09.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and ideally, you'd like to be married\Nby the time that you're 35.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.62,0:08:11.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's a number of people
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.09,0:08:13.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you could potentially\Ndate across your lifetime,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.61,0:08:15.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they'll be at varying\Nlevels of goodness.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.76,0:08:18.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the rules are that once\Nyou cash in and get married,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.45,0:08:20.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can't look ahead to see\Nwhat you could have had,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.90,0:08:23.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and equally, you can't go back\Nand change your mind.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.46,0:08:25.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In my experience at least,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.08,0:08:27.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I find that typically people\Ndon't much like being recalled
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.90,0:08:33.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,years after being passed up\Nfor somebody else, or that's just me.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.15,0:08:36.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the math says then\Nthat what you should do
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.36,0:08:39.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the first 37 percent\Nof your dating window,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.56,0:08:43.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you should just reject everybody\Nas serious marriage potential.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.34,0:08:45.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.51,0:08:49.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, you should pick\Nthe next person that comes along
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.16,0:08:52.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is better than everybody\Nthat you've seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.15,0:08:53.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here's the example.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.60,0:08:56.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now if you do this, it can be\Nmathematically proven, in fact,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.49,0:08:58.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this is the best possible way
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.98,0:09:03.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of maximizing your chances\Nof finding the perfect partner.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.33,0:09:07.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that\Nthis method does come with some risks.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.60,0:09:13.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For instance, imagine\Nif your perfect partner appeared
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.44,0:09:16.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during your first 37 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.14,0:09:18.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, unfortunately,\Nyou'd have to reject them.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.94,0:09:21.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.13,0:09:24.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if you're following the maths,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.27,0:09:25.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm afraid no one else comes along
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.92,0:09:28.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's better than anyone\Nyou've seen before,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.22,0:09:32.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you have to go on\Nrejecting everyone and die alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.09,0:09:34.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.56,0:09:36.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Probably surrounded by cats ...
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.10,0:09:37.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.84,0:09:39.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nibbling at your remains.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.43,0:09:43.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, another risk is,\Nlet's imagine, instead,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.42,0:09:46.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the first people that you dated\Nin your first 37 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.56,0:09:50.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are just incredibly dull,\Nboring, terrible people.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.84,0:09:53.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's OK, because\Nyou're in your rejection phase,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.24,0:09:54.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that's fine, you can reject them.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.98,0:09:58.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then imagine\Nthe next person to come along
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.38,0:10:01.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is just marginally less boring,\Ndull and terrible ...
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.74,0:10:02.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.86,0:10:04.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than everybody that you've seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.78,0:10:08.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if you are following the maths,\NI'm afraid you have to marry them ...
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.40,0:10:09.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.48,0:10:12.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and end up in a relationship\Nwhich is, frankly, suboptimal.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.64,0:10:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sorry about that.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.82,0:10:17.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I do think that there's an opportunity\Nhere for Hallmark to cash in on
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.35,0:10:18.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and really cater for this market.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.95,0:10:20.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A Valentine's Day card like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.56,0:10:21.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.74,0:10:24.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"My darling husband,\Nyou are marginally less terrible
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.76,0:10:26.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the first 37 percent\Nof people I dated."
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.94,0:10:28.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.60,0:10:31.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's actually more romantic\Nthan I normally manage.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.74,0:10:33.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.24,0:10:37.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, so this method doesn't give you\Na 100 percent success rate,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.92,0:10:41.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's no other possible\Nstrategy that can do any better.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.38,0:10:44.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And actually, in the wild,\Nthere are certain types of fish
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.84,0:10:47.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which follow and employ\Nthis exact strategy.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.68,0:10:50.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they reject every possible\Nsuitor that turns up
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.46,0:10:53.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the first 37 percent\Nof the mating season,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.17,0:10:56.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then they pick the next fish\Nthat comes along after that window
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.94,0:10:59.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.12,0:11:01.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than all of the fish\Nthat they've seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.72,0:11:06.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I also think that subconsciously,\Nhumans, we do sort of do this anyway.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.63,0:11:09.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We give ourselves a little bit of time\Nto play the field,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.50,0:11:13.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get a feel for the marketplace\Nor whatever when we're young.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.12,0:11:17.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we only start looking seriously\Nat potential marriage candidates
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.73,0:11:19.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.78,0:11:22.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think this is conclusive proof,\Nif ever it were needed,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.01,0:11:27.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that everybody's brains are prewired\Nto be just a little bit mathematical.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.45,0:11:29.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, so that was Top Tip #2.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.48,0:11:32.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.35,0:11:36.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, so let's imagine then\Nthat you picked your perfect partner
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.30,0:11:40.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you're settling into\Na lifelong relationship with them.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.55,0:11:44.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I like to think that everybody\Nwould ideally like to avoid divorce,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.56,0:11:48.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,apart from, I don't know,\NPiers Morgan's wife, maybe?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.83,0:11:49.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.18,0:11:52.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's a sad fact of modern life
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.63,0:11:55.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that one in two marriages\Nin the States ends in divorce,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.91,0:11:59.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the rest of the world\Nnot being far behind.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.73,0:12:01.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.59,0:12:05.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for thinking that the arguments\Nthat precede a marital breakup
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.34,0:12:09.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are not an ideal candidate\Nfor mathematical investigation.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.36,0:12:11.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For one thing, it's very hard to know
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.16,0:12:14.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what you should be measuring\Nor what you should be quantifying.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.27,0:12:20.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this didn't stop a psychologist,\NJohn Gottman, who did exactly that.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.47,0:12:25.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gottman observed hundreds of couples\Nhaving a conversation
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.73,0:12:28.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and recorded, well,\Neverything you can think of.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.06,0:12:30.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he recorded what was said\Nin the conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.46,0:12:32.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he recorded their skin conductivity,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.77,0:12:34.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he recorded their facial expressions,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.86,0:12:36.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their heart rates, their blood pressure,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.87,0:12:43.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,basically everything apart from whether\Nor not the wife was actually always right,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.13,0:12:46.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which incidentally she totally is.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.35,0:12:48.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what Gottman and his team found
Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.02,0:12:52.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that one of the most\Nimportant predictors
Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.06,0:12:54.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for whether or not a couple\Nis going to get divorced
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.57,0:12:59.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was how positive or negative each partner\Nwas being in the conversation.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.21,0:13:01.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, couples that were very low-risk
Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.57,0:13:05.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scored a lot more positive points\Non Gottman's scale than negative.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.86,0:13:08.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas bad relationships,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.43,0:13:11.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by which I mean,\Nprobably going to get divorced,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.20,0:13:15.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they found themselves getting\Ninto a spiral of negativity.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.58,0:13:17.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now just by using these very simple ideas,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.86,0:13:20.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gottman and his group were able to predict
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.36,0:13:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether a given couple\Nwas going to get divorced
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.10,0:13:25.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a 90 percent accuracy.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.00,0:13:29.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it wasn't until he teamed up\Nwith a mathematician, James Murray,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:29.32,0:13:31.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they really started to understand
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.23,0:13:35.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what causes these negativity spirals\Nand how they occur.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.75,0:13:37.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the results that they found,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.31,0:13:41.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think, are just incredibly\Nimpressively simple and interesting.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.98,0:13:46.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So these equations predict how the wife\Nor husband is going to respond
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.57,0:13:48.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in their next turn of the conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.48,0:13:50.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how positive or negative\Nthey're going to be.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.64,0:13:52.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these equations depend on
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.05,0:13:54.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the mood of the person\Nwhen they're on their own,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.38,0:13:56.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the mood of the person when\Nthey're with their partner,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:57.01,0:13:58.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but most importantly, they depend on
Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.76,0:14:01.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how much the husband and wife\Ninfluence one another.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.12,0:14:04.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think it's important\Nto point out at this stage,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:04.75,0:14:08.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that these exact equations\Nhave also been shown
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.28,0:14:10.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be perfectly able at describing
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.50,0:14:14.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what happens between two countries\Nin an arms race.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.01,0:14:18.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.30,0:14:21.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that an arguing couple\Nspiraling into negativity
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.90,0:14:23.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and teetering on the brink of divorce
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.83,0:14:28.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually mathematically equivalent\Nto the beginning of a nuclear war.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.11,0:14:30.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.02,0:14:33.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the really important term\Nin this equation
Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.36,0:14:35.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the influence that people\Nhave on one another,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.88,0:14:39.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in particular, something called\N"the negativity threshold."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.16,0:14:40.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the negativity threshold,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.91,0:14:45.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can think of as\Nhow annoying the husband can be
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.56,0:14:49.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before the wife starts to get\Nreally pissed off, and vice versa.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.85,0:14:54.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I always thought that good marriages\Nwere about compromise and understanding
Dialogue: 0,0:14:54.41,0:14:57.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and allowing the person\Nto have the space to be themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.19,0:15:00.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I would have thought that perhaps\Nthe most successful relationships
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.57,0:15:03.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were ones where there was\Na really high negativity threshold.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:03.88,0:15:05.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Where couples let things go
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.69,0:15:08.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and only brought things up\Nif they really were a big deal.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.49,0:15:12.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But actually, the mathematics\Nand subsequent findings by the team
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.76,0:15:15.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have shown the exact opposite is true.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.80,0:15:18.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The best couples,\Nor the most successful couples,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:18.13,0:15:21.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the ones with a really low\Nnegativity threshold.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.52,0:15:25.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the couples\Nthat don't let anything go unnoticed
Dialogue: 0,0:15:25.18,0:15:28.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and allow each other\Nsome room to complain.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.40,0:15:33.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the couples that are continually\Ntrying to repair their own relationship,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.66,0:15:36.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have a much more positive\Noutlook on their marriage.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.42,0:15:38.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Couples that don't let things go
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.52,0:15:43.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and couples that don't let trivial things\Nend up being a really big deal.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.43,0:15:49.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now of course, it takes a bit more\Nthan just a low negativity threshold
Dialogue: 0,0:15:49.71,0:15:54.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not compromising\Nto have a successful relationship.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:54.10,0:15:56.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I think that it's quite interesting
Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.65,0:15:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to know that there is really\Nmathematical evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.03,0:16:02.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to say that you should never\Nlet the sun go down on your anger.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.48,0:16:04.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So those are my top three tips
Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.19,0:16:07.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how maths can help you\Nwith love and relationships.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.38,0:16:09.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I hope, that aside from\Ntheir use as tips,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.80,0:16:13.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they also give you a little bit of insight\Ninto the power of mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.93,0:16:18.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because for me, equations\Nand symbols aren't just a thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.68,0:16:23.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're a voice that speaks out\Nabout the incredible richness of nature
Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.12,0:16:24.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the startling simplicity
Dialogue: 0,0:16:24.93,0:16:29.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the patterns that twist and turn\Nand warp and evolve all around us,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:29.77,0:16:32.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from how the world works to how we behave.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.37,0:16:34.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I hope that perhaps,\Nfor just a couple of you,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.70,0:16:37.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a little bit of insight\Ninto the mathematics of love
Dialogue: 0,0:16:37.21,0:16:40.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can persuade you to have\Na little bit more love for mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.53,0:16:41.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:41.76,0:16:48.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)