[Script Info] Title: [Events] Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to talk today about saving more, Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.00,0:00:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but not today, tomorrow. Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.00,0:00:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow. Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.00,0:00:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a program that Richard Thaler Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.00,0:00:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the University of Chicago and I Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.00,0:00:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,devised maybe 15 years ago. Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.00,0:00:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The program, in a sense, Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.00,0:00:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is an example of behavioral finance Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.00,0:00:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on steroids -- Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.00,0:00:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how we could really use behavioral finance. Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.00,0:00:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance? Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.00,0:00:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's think about how we manage our money. Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.00,0:00:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's start with mortgages. Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.00,0:00:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's kind of a recent topic, Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.00,0:00:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at least in the U.S. Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.00,0:00:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A lot of people buy Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.00,0:00:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the biggest house they can afford, Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.00,0:00:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and actually slightly bigger than that. Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.00,0:00:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then they foreclose. Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.00,0:00:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then they blame the banks Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.00,0:00:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages. Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.00,0:00:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's also think about Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.00,0:00:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how we manage risks -- Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.00,0:00:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for example, investing in the stock market. Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.00,0:01:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago, Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.00,0:01:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,markets did well. Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.00,0:01:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were risk takers, of course. Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.00,0:01:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then market stocks seize Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.00,0:01:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're like, "Wow. Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.00,0:01:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These losses, they feel, emotionally, Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.00,0:01:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they feel very different Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.00,0:01:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from what we actually thought about it Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.00,0:01:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when markets were going up." Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.00,0:01:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we're probably not doing a great job Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.00,0:01:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to risk taking. Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.00,0:01:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many of you have iPhones? Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.00,0:01:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anyone? Wonderful. Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.00,0:01:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would bet many more of you Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.00,0:01:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,insure your iPhone -- Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.00,0:01:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty. Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.00,0:01:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What if you lose your iPhone? Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.00,0:01:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What if you do this? Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.00,0:01:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many of you have kids? Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.00,0:01:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anyone? Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.00,0:01:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Keep your hands up Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.00,0:01:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you have sufficient life insurance. Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.00,0:01:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I see a lot of hands coming down. Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.00,0:01:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would predict, Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.00,0:02:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you're a representative sample, Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.00,0:02:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that many more of you Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.00,0:02:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,insure your iPhones than your lives, Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.00,0:02:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even when you have kids. Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.00,0:02:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance. Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.00,0:02:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average American household Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.00,0:02:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,spends 1,000 dollars a year Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.00,0:02:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on lotteries. Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.00,0:02:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I know it sounds crazy. Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.00,0:02:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries? Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.00,0:02:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No one. Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.00,0:02:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that tells us that the people not in this room Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.00,0:02:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are spending more than a thousand Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.00,0:02:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to get the average to a thousand. Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.00,0:02:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Low-income people Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.00,0:02:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries. Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.00,0:02:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So where does it take us? Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.00,0:02:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're not doing a great job managing money. Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.00,0:02:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Behavioral finance is really a combination Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.00,0:02:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of psychology and economics, Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.00,0:02:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,trying to understand Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.00,0:02:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the money mistakes people make. Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.00,0:02:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I can keep standing here Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.00,0:03:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.00,0:03:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and make fun of all sorts of ways Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.00,0:03:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we manage money, Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.00,0:03:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at the end you're going to ask, "How can we help people?" Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.00,0:03:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's what I really want to focus on today. Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.00,0:03:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How do we take an understanding Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.00,0:03:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the money mistakes people make, Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.00,0:03:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then turning the behavioral challenges Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.00,0:03:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into behavioral solutions? Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.00,0:03:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what I'm going to talk about today Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.00,0:03:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is Save More Tomorrow. Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.00,0:03:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to address the issue Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.00,0:03:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of savings. Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.00,0:03:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have on the screen Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.00,0:03:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a representative sample Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.00,0:03:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of 100 Americans. Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.00,0:03:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we're going to look at their saving behavior. Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.00,0:03:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First thing to notice is, Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.00,0:03:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,half of them Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.00,0:03:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do not even have access Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.00,0:03:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to a 401(k) plan. Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.00,0:03:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They cannot make savings easy. Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.00,0:03:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They cannot have money go away from their paycheck Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.00,0:03:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into a 401(k) plan Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.00,0:03:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before they see it, Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.00,0:03:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before they can touch it. Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.00,0:04:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What about the remaining half of the people? Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.00,0:04:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some of them elect not to save. Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.00,0:04:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're just too lazy. Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.00,0:04:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They never get around to logging into a complicated website Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.00,0:04:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan. Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.00,0:04:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then they have to decide how they're going to invest Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.00,0:04:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in their 52 choices, Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.00,0:04:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they never heard about what is a money market fund. Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.00,0:04:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join. Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.00,0:04:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan? Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.00,0:04:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One third of Americans. Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.00,0:04:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two thirds are not saving now. Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.00,0:04:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are they saving enough? Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.00,0:04:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take out those Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.00,0:04:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who say they save too little. Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.00,0:04:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One out of 10 Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.00,0:04:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are saving enough. Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.00,0:04:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nine out of 10 Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.00,0:04:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,either cannot save through their 401(k) plan, Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.00,0:04:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,decide not to save -- or don't decide -- Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.00,0:04:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or save too little. Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.00,0:04:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We think we have a problem Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.00,0:04:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of people saving too much. Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.00,0:05:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's look at that. Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.00,0:05:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have one person -- Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.00,0:05:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, actually we're going to slice him in half Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.00,0:05:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's less than one percent. Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.00,0:05:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Roughly half a percent of Americans Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.00,0:05:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,feel that they save too much. Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.00,0:05:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What are we going to do about it? Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.00,0:05:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what I really want to focus on. Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.00,0:05:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have to understand Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.00,0:05:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why people are not saving, Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.00,0:05:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then we can hopefully flip Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.00,0:05:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the behavioral challenges Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.00,0:05:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into behavioral solutions, Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.00,0:05:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then see how powerful it might be. Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.00,0:05:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me divert for a second Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.00,0:05:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we're going to identify the problems, Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.00,0:05:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the challenges, the behavioral challenges, Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.00,0:05:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that prevent people from saving. Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.00,0:05:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate. Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.00,0:05:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week. Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.00,0:05:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And during the break Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.00,0:05:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there would be a snack Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.00,0:05:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you could choose bananas or chocolate. Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.00,0:05:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many of you think you would like to have bananas Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.00,0:06:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during this hypothetical TED event next week? Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.00,0:06:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Who would go for bananas? Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.00,0:06:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wonderful. Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.00,0:06:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I predict scientifically Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.00,0:06:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,74 percent of you will go for bananas. Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.00,0:06:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted. Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.00,0:06:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then count down the days Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.00,0:06:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and see what people ended up eating. Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.00,0:06:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The same people that imagined themselves Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.00,0:06:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eating the bananas Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.00,0:06:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ended up eating chocolates Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.00,0:06:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a week later. Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.00,0:06:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Self-control Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.00,0:06:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not a problem in the future. Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.00,0:06:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's only a problem now Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.00,0:06:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the chocolate is next to us. Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.00,0:06:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What does it have to do with time and savings, Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.00,0:06:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this issue of immediate gratification? Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.00,0:06:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or as some economists call it, present bias. Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.00,0:06:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We think about saving. We know we should be saving. Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.00,0:06:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend. Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.00,0:07:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Christmas is coming, Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.00,0:07:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know. Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.00,0:07:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this issue of present bias Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.00,0:07:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,causes us to think about saving, Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.00,0:07:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but end up spending. Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.00,0:07:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me now talk Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.00,0:07:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about another behavioral obstacle to saving Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.00,0:07:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,having to do with inertia. Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.00,0:07:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But again, a little diversion Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.00,0:07:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the topic of organ donation. Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.00,0:07:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wonderful study comparing different countries. Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.00,0:07:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're going to look at two similar countries, Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.00,0:07:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Germany and Austria. Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.00,0:07:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in Germany, Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.00,0:07:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you would like to donate your organs -- Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.00,0:07:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,God forbid something really bad Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.00,0:07:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,happens to you -- Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.00,0:07:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you get your driving license or an I.D., Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.00,0:07:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you check the box saying, Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.00,0:07:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I would like to donate my organs." Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.00,0:07:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not many people like checking boxes. Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.00,0:07:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It takes effort. You need to think. Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.00,0:07:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Twelve percent do. Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.00,0:07:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Austria, a neighboring country, Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.00,0:07:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,slightly similar, slightly different. Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.00,0:08:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's the difference? Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.00,0:08:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, you still have choice. Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.00,0:08:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You will decide Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.00,0:08:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether you want to donate your organs or not. Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.00,0:08:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when you get your driving license, Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.00,0:08:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you check the box Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.00,0:08:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you do not want to donate your organ. Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.00,0:08:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nobody checks boxes. Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.00,0:08:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's kind of too much effort. Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.00,0:08:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One percent check the box. The rest do nothing. Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.00,0:08:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Doing nothing is very common. Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.00,0:08:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not many people check boxes. Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.00,0:08:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What are the implications Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.00,0:08:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to saving lives Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.00,0:08:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and having organs available? Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.00,0:08:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In Germany, 12 percent check the box. Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.00,0:08:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Twelve percent are organ donors. Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.00,0:08:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Huge shortage of organs, Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.00,0:08:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,God forbid, if you need one. Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.00,0:08:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In Austria, again, nobody checks the box. Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.00,0:08:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Therefore, 99 percent of people Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.00,0:08:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are organ donors. Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.00,0:08:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Inertia, lack of action. Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.00,0:08:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is the default setting Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.00,0:08:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if people do nothing, Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.00,0:09:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes? Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.00,0:09:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Very powerful. Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.00,0:09:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're going to talk Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.00,0:09:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.00,0:09:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make their 401(k) choices. Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.00,0:09:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are we going to make them automatically join the plan, Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.00,0:09:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or are they going to be left out? Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.00,0:09:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In too many 401(k) plans, Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.00,0:09:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if people do nothing, Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.00,0:09:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it means they're not saving for retirement, Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.00,0:09:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if they don't check the box. Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.00,0:09:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And checking the box takes effort. Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.00,0:09:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges. Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.00,0:09:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One more before we flip the challenges into solutions, Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.00,0:09:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,having to do with monkeys and apples. Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.00,0:09:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, no, no, this is a real study Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.00,0:09:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics. Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.00,0:09:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy. Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.00,0:09:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The other group gets two apples, one is taken away. Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.00,0:09:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They still have an apple left. Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.00,0:09:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're really mad. Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.00,0:09:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why have you taken our apple? Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.00,0:09:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the notion of loss aversion. Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.00,0:10:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We hate losing stuff, Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.00,0:10:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk. Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.00,0:10:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You would hate to go to the ATM, Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.00,0:10:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,take out 100 dollars Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.00,0:10:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills. Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.00,0:10:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's very painful, Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.00,0:10:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even though it doesn't mean anything. Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.00,0:10:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch. Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.00,0:10:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this notion of loss aversion Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.00,0:10:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kicks in when it comes to savings too, Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.00,0:10:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because people, mentally Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.00,0:10:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and emotionally and intuitively Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.00,0:10:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,frame savings as a loss Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.00,0:10:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I have to cut my spending. Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.00,0:10:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we talked about Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.00,0:10:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all sorts of behavioral challenges Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.00,0:10:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,having to do with savings eventually. Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.00,0:10:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whether you think about immediate gratification, Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.00,0:10:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the chocolates versus bananas, Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.00,0:10:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's just painful to save now. Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.00,0:10:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a lot more fun Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.00,0:10:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to spend now. Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.00,0:11:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We talked about inertia and organ donations Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.00,0:11:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and checking the box. Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.00,0:11:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If people have to check a lot of boxes Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.00,0:11:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to join a 401(k) plan, Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.00,0:11:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're going to keep procrastinating Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.00,0:11:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not join. Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.00,0:11:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And last, we talked about loss aversion, Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.00,0:11:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the monkeys and the apples. Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.00,0:11:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If people frame mentally Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.00,0:11:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saving for retirement as a loss, Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.00,0:11:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're not going to be saving for retirement. Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.00,0:11:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we've got these challenges, Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.00,0:11:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what Richard Thaler and I Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.00,0:11:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were always fascinated by -- Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.00,0:11:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,take behavioral finance, Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.00,0:11:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,make it behavioral finance on steroids Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.00,0:11:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or behavioral finance 2.0 Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.00,0:11:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or behavioral finance in action -- Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.00,0:11:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,flip the challenges into solutions. Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.00,0:11:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solution Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.00,0:11:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,called Save More, not today, Tomorrow. Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.00,0:11:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How is it going to solve the challenges Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.00,0:11:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we chatted about? Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.00,0:11:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you think about the problem Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.00,0:11:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of bananas versus chocolates, Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.00,0:11:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we think we're going to eat bananas next week. Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.00,0:12:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We think we're going to save more next year. Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.00,0:12:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Save More Tomorrow Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.00,0:12:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,invites employees Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.00,0:12:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to save more maybe next year -- Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.00,0:12:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sometime in the future Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.00,0:12:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we can imagine ourselves Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.00,0:12:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eating bananas, Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.00,0:12:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,volunteering more in the community, Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.00,0:12:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,exercising more and doing all the right things on the planet. Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.00,0:12:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we also talked about checking the box Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.00,0:12:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the difficulty of taking action. Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.00,0:12:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Save More Tomorrow Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.00,0:12:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,makes it easy. Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.00,0:12:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an autopilot. Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.00,0:12:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Once you tell me you would like to save more in the future, Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.00,0:12:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's say every January Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.00,0:12:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're going to be saving more automatically Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.00,0:12:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's going to go away from your paycheck to the 401(k) plan Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.00,0:12:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before you see it, before you touch it, Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.00,0:12:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before you get the issue Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.00,0:12:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of immediate gratification. Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.00,0:12:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what are we going to do about the monkeys Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.00,0:12:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and loss aversion? Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.00,0:12:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next January comes Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.00,0:13:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and people might feel that if they save more, Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.00,0:13:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have to spend less, and that's painful. Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.00,0:13:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, maybe it shouldn't be just January. Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.00,0:13:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe we should make people save more Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.00,0:13:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they make more money. Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.00,0:13:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That way, when they make more money, when they get a pay raise, Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.00,0:13:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they don't have to cut their spending. Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.00,0:13:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They take a little bit Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.00,0:13:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the increase in the paycheck home Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.00,0:13:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and spend more -- Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.00,0:13:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,take a little bit of the increase Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.00,0:13:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and put it in a 401(k) plan. Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.00,0:13:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that is the program, Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.00,0:13:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,embarrassingly simple, Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.00,0:13:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but as we're going to see, Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.00,0:13:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,extremely powerful. Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.00,0:13:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We first implemented it, Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.00,0:13:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Richard Thaler and I, Dialogue: 0,0:13:42.00,0:13:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,back in 1998. Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.00,0:13:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Mid-sized company in the Midwest, Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.00,0:13:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,blue collar employees Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.00,0:13:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,struggling to pay their bills Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.00,0:13:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,repeatedly told us Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.00,0:13:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they cannot save more right away. Dialogue: 0,0:13:57.00,0:14:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Saving more today is not an option. Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.00,0:14:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We invited them to save Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.00,0:14:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,three percentage points more Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.00,0:14:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every time they get a pay raise. Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.00,0:14:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here are the results. Dialogue: 0,0:14:11.00,0:14:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're seeing here a three and a half-year period, Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.00,0:14:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,four pay raises, Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.00,0:14:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people who were struggling to save, Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.00,0:14:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were saving three percent of their paycheck, Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.00,0:14:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,three and a half years later Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.00,0:14:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saving almost four times as much, Dialogue: 0,0:14:24.00,0:14:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,almost 14 percent. Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.00,0:14:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's shoes and bicycles Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.00,0:14:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and things on this chart Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.00,0:14:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I don't want to just throw numbers Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.00,0:14:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a vacuum. Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.00,0:14:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want, really, to think about the fact Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.00,0:14:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that saving four times more Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.00,0:14:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a huge difference Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.00,0:14:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in terms of the lifestyle Dialogue: 0,0:14:44.00,0:14:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that people will be able to afford. Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.00,0:14:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's real. Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.00,0:14:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not just numbers on a piece of paper. Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.00,0:14:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas with saving three percent, Dialogue: 0,0:14:53.00,0:14:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people might have to add nice sneakers Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.00,0:14:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so they can walk, Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.00,0:15:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they won't be able to afford anything else, Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.00,0:15:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they save 14 percent Dialogue: 0,0:15:03.00,0:15:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they might be able to maybe have nice dress shoes Dialogue: 0,0:15:06.00,0:15:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to walk to the car to drive. Dialogue: 0,0:15:09.00,0:15:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a real difference. Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.00,0:15:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By now, about 60 percent of the large companies Dialogue: 0,0:15:16.00,0:15:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually have programs like this in place. Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.00,0:15:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's been part of the Pension Protection Act. Dialogue: 0,0:15:22.00,0:15:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And needless to say that Thaler and I Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.00,0:15:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been blessed to be part of this program Dialogue: 0,0:15:27.00,0:15:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and make a difference. Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.00,0:15:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me wrap Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.00,0:15:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with two key messages. Dialogue: 0,0:15:34.00,0:15:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One is behavioral finance Dialogue: 0,0:15:37.00,0:15:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is extremely powerful. Dialogue: 0,0:15:40.00,0:15:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is just one example. Dialogue: 0,0:15:43.00,0:15:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Message two Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.00,0:15:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is there's still a lot to do. Dialogue: 0,0:15:47.00,0:15:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is really the tip of the iceberg. Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.00,0:15:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you think about people and mortgages Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.00,0:15:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and buying houses and then not being able to pay for it, Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.00,0:15:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to think about that. Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.00,0:16:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you're thinking about people taking too much risk Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.00,0:16:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not understanding how much risk they're taking Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.00,0:16:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or taking too little risk, Dialogue: 0,0:16:06.00,0:16:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to think about that. Dialogue: 0,0:16:08.00,0:16:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you think about people spending a thousand dollars a year Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.00,0:16:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on lottery tickets, Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.00,0:16:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to think about that. Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.00,0:16:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average actually, Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.00,0:16:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the record is in Singapore. Dialogue: 0,0:16:19.00,0:16:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average household Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.00,0:16:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,spends $4,000 a year on lottery tickets. Dialogue: 0,0:16:24.00,0:16:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've got a lot to do, Dialogue: 0,0:16:26.00,0:16:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a lot to solve, Dialogue: 0,0:16:28.00,0:16:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also in the retirement area Dialogue: 0,0:16:31.00,0:16:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to what people do with their money Dialogue: 0,0:16:33.00,0:16:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after retirement. Dialogue: 0,0:16:35.00,0:16:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One last question: Dialogue: 0,0:16:37.00,0:16:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many of you feel comfortable Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.00,0:16:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that as you're planning for retirement Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.00,0:16:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have a really solid plan Dialogue: 0,0:16:45.00,0:16:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you're going to retire, Dialogue: 0,0:16:47.00,0:16:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you're going to claim Social Security benefits, Dialogue: 0,0:16:50.00,0:16:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what lifestyle to expect, Dialogue: 0,0:16:52.00,0:16:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how much to spend every month Dialogue: 0,0:16:54.00,0:16:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you're not going to run out of money? Dialogue: 0,0:16:56.00,0:16:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many of you feel you have a solid plan for the future Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.00,0:17:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to post-retirement decisions. Dialogue: 0,0:17:04.00,0:17:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One, two, three, four. Dialogue: 0,0:17:07.00,0:17:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Less than three percent Dialogue: 0,0:17:09.00,0:17:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a very sophisticated audience. Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.00,0:17:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Behavioral finance has a long way. Dialogue: 0,0:17:14.00,0:17:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a lot of opportunities Dialogue: 0,0:17:16.00,0:17:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make it powerful again and again and again. Dialogue: 0,0:17:20.00,0:17:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you. Dialogue: 0,0:17:22.00,0:17:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)