1 00:00:00,001 --> 00:00:06,057 [Dorothy Bishop] I'm going to talk today about evaluating alternative intervention approaches to dyslexia. 2 00:00:06,059 --> 00:00:07,462 [slide with talk title] 3 00:00:07,463 --> 00:00:13,667 The conventional approaches that you get really tend to rely on the fact that we've now got of evidence 4 00:00:13,668 --> 00:00:18,409 that most children with dyslexia have problems in what is called phonological awareness, 5 00:00:18,410 --> 00:00:23,440 that is, they don't necessarily hear all the different sounds in speech, 6 00:00:23,441 --> 00:00:28,380 and therefore have difficulty relating them to letters when they are trying to read. 7 00:00:28,381 --> 00:00:37,516 And most of the interventions that are mainstream these days would focus on trying to train children to identify sounds in words and relate them to letters. 8 00:00:38,971 --> 00:00:45,414 But this sort of intervention has been shown to be effective, and there have been a number of large scale studies. 9 00:00:45,415 --> 00:00:51,725 But nevertheless, it has to be fairly prolonged for some children, and there are children for whom, 10 00:00:51,725 --> 00:00:57,870 even though they can learn this way to actually sound out words and read, they don't necessarily read fluently. 11 00:00:57,912 --> 00:01:03,306 It's still an effort for them, and they don't sort of get to the degree of automaticity that you might expect, 12 00:01:03,307 --> 00:01:07,683 And it's certainly the case that methods that work for many children don't work for all children, 13 00:01:07,684 --> 00:01:10,756 and there is a hard core of children who remain very hard to treat. 14 00:01:10,757 --> 00:01:15,943 It is for this reason that many parents do get very concerned about whether there is something else they should be doing 15 00:01:15,944 --> 00:01:21,997 if they are finding that their child is either not getting intervention, or that the intervention doesn't seem to be working very well. 16 00:01:21,998 --> 00:01:29,446 And there are a whole load of things out there that are on offer, and the problem for the parents, I think - 17 00:01:29,447 --> 00:01:33,982 and/or indeed for adults who themselves, might want to have further intervention for dyslexia - 18 00:01:33,983 --> 00:01:37,691 is that they want to know, "how do I distinguish something that might work for me", 19 00:01:37,691 --> 00:01:41,641 from something that is just some sort of snake-oil merchant who is out there to make money. 20 00:01:41,642 --> 00:01:44,482 And that's what I want to try and address today. 21 00:01:44,482 --> 00:01:51,544 principally from the perspective of how you might evaluate scientific evidence that people put forward. 22 00:01:51,544 --> 00:01:57,486 But perhaps before going onto that, it's worth going into some relatively commonsense things. 23 00:01:57,618 --> 00:02:06,612 I would say that there are certain things that should ring alarm bells if people are advertising some sort of treatment for child dyslexia. 24 00:02:06,649 --> 00:02:13,064 The first thing is if the intervention has been developped by somebody who has no academic track record, 25 00:02:13,065 --> 00:02:17,834 no experience of doing research in this field, and hasn't published anything in this field, 26 00:02:17,834 --> 00:02:24,541 if the intervention isn't endorsed by people in the mainstream dyslexia field, 27 00:02:24,542 --> 00:02:27,633 that should also sound a note of caution. 28 00:02:27,634 --> 00:02:29,820 Of course, the mainstream people aren't always right. 29 00:02:29,821 --> 00:02:32,971 It's possible that somebody with no background will develop something marvelous. 30 00:02:32,972 --> 00:02:37,474 But if that were the case, you would expect it to be pretty quickly picked up by people in the mainstream, 31 00:02:37,475 --> 00:02:40,798 who are really, on the whole, pretty keen to find things that will work. 32 00:02:40,798 --> 00:02:47,811 And you obviously want to look at whether somebody is asking for a lot of money for something that hasn't been proven. 33 00:02:47,812 --> 00:02:56,216 And what is also, to my mind, a worrying sign, is if somebody promoting a treatment is relying heavily just on testimonials 34 00:02:56,217 --> 00:03:04,154 from individuals who claimed to have been cured, rather than having any sort of proper scientific evaluation or kind of controls. 35 00:03:04,155 --> 00:03:10,613 And it's worth noting that human beings have a tendency to be terribly impressed by testimonials, 36 00:03:10,613 --> 00:03:16,749 and even myself, as somebody with a scientific training, I find if, you know, I've got headaches and somebody comes along and says: 37 00:03:16,750 --> 00:03:20,603 "I was cured by such and such, and I went to my herbalist and it worked", 38 00:03:20,603 --> 00:03:27,094 you know, you're often very tempted to be much more swayed by that sort of evidence than by a pagefull of numbers and figures. 39 00:03:27,095 --> 00:03:34,677 And this just a human tendency: we are naturally built to really take advice from other people and to rely on what they tell us. 40 00:03:34,677 --> 00:03:38,494 But in the contexts of these sorts of interventions, that's really quite dangerous, 41 00:03:38,494 --> 00:03:44,271 because, when somebody gives a testimonial, that's just one person, their only individual experience, 42 00:03:44,272 --> 00:03:48,273 And people you don't hear from tend to be the people who tried it, and it didn't work. 43 00:03:48,274 --> 00:03:51,881 And you don't know how many of them there are: there may be thousands of them. 44 00:03:51,882 --> 00:03:56,049 But they're not going to publicize the fact that they tried it and it didn't work. 45 00:03:56,050 --> 00:04:01,945 And so, testimonials are often very much at odds with more scientific evaluations. 46 00:04:01,945 --> 00:04:10,096 .... to turn out that when somebody says there is scientific evidence for what they're doing, how you should interpret that. 47 00:04:10,097 --> 00:04:14,964 And that's jolly difficult even for scientists sometimes: there is disagreement - let alone for the general public. 48 00:04:14,965 --> 00:04:20,727 But again, I think, there are some sort of general rules of thumb that you can go by 49 00:04:20,728 --> 00:04:24,020 for telling that a treatment is likely to be effective. 50 00:04:25,450 --> 00:04:38,229 And when I discuss this, I'm going to illustrate it by taking the example of the Dore treatment - that's DORE, named after Wynford Dore, it's originator. 51 00:04:38,230 --> 00:04:46,360 ANd I'm picking on this largely because it is a non-mainstream treatment that isn't widely accepted by the experts, 52 00:04:46,361 --> 00:04:49,899 and yet it does claim that there is some scientific evidence to support it, 53 00:04:49,900 --> 00:04:54,277 which has lead the scientists to look at it quite critically and quite carefully, 54 00:04:54,277 --> 00:04:57,654 which is what we would do with any scientific evidence that comes along: 55 00:04:57,655 --> 00:05:04,834 once it's out in the public domain and published, people tend to go and look at it as carefully as they possibly can. 56 00:05:04,834 --> 00:05:11,944 Now, the Dore method is interesting to us, because it does illustrate the case where there is disagreement 57 00:05:11,945 --> 00:05:15,197 as to whether the evidence is showing that its' effective or not. 58 00:05:15,198 --> 00:05:20,587 And so, what I want to explain is why it is the case that despite this published evidence, 59 00:05:20,588 --> 00:05:25,324 most of the experts are not impressed of the efficacy of the Dore treatment. 60 00:05:25,325 --> 00:05:32,227 But the general points that I'll make would apply to any other treatment that was out there, whether (?) there was evidence being produced. 61 00:05:32,751 --> 00:05:39,961 So, first of all, what is the Dore method? Well, it's a method that has been proposed for curing problems 62 00:05:39,962 --> 00:05:44,774 that are thought to originate in the part of the brain called the cerebellum, which is at the back of the brain, 63 00:05:44,774 --> 00:05:49,999 and it was developed by Wynford Dore as a method for helping his dyslexic daughter. 64 00:05:49,999 --> 00:05:53,578 He has written a book about the history of how this came to became (?) about, 65 00:05:53,579 --> 00:05:58,973 and he was a classic instance of a parent who was rather desperate to help his daughter who, for many years, 66 00:05:58,973 --> 00:06:03,513 had been through the educational system and failed, and was getting increasingly depressed. 67 00:06:03,514 --> 00:06:10,842 And he tried various things, he talked to various experts, and he ended up with this program that's been put forward, 68 00:06:10,842 --> 00:06:15,541 which is an individualized program, where the child follows various sorts of exercises, 69 00:06:15,542 --> 00:06:21,019 which are done for about ten minutes twice a day, over quite a long period of time, 70 00:06:21,019 --> 00:06:25,265 varying, depending on the severity of the problem, from maybe 6 months to 2 years. 71 00:06:25,928 --> 00:06:30,984 And the child is assessed at regular intervals and different exercises may be prescribed. 72 00:06:30,985 --> 00:06:38,550 Now, the theory behind the Dore method is that dyslexia and other learning difficulties - 73 00:06:38,550 --> 00:06:43,661 it's not just dyslexia it claims to help, but also Attention Deficit problems ...(?) hyperactive - 74 00:06:43,661 --> 00:06:49,043 are thought to arise within the cerebellum: the cerebellum just doesn't develop normally, 75 00:06:49,043 --> 00:06:54,474 and the argument is that you can have different cerebellar impediments in different people, 76 00:06:54,475 --> 00:06:57,198 and that's why you can get this range of different symptoms, 77 00:06:57,199 --> 00:07:04,061 but that you can diagnose them by specific tests of test of mental and physical coordinations. 78 00:07:04,062 --> 00:07:12,679 And what you are then supposed to do is these exercises, which are not anywhere fully described in the public domain, 79 00:07:12,679 --> 00:07:17,623 because they are commercially sensitive, but there are some examples given, and it's clear that what they do 80 00:07:17,623 --> 00:07:22,714 is focused largely on training balance and hand-eye coordination in children. 81 00:07:22,715 --> 00:07:29,890 So you might be asked to stand on a cushion on one leg, or to throw a bean bag from one hand to another 82 00:07:29,891 --> 00:07:37,296 while you are doing that, just stand on a wobble board (?) and balance, or to follow something with your eyes in a particular way. 83 00:07:39,188 --> 00:07:48,267 So, the idea is that these are all things that the cerebellum is involved in, by training up the cerebellum, you may improve its general abilities. 84 00:07:48,727 --> 00:07:53,435 So, what is the evidence for this underlying theory? 85 00:07:53,436 --> 00:07:58,405 Well, it's not a proven theory, but there is some support for it. 86 00:07:58,405 --> 00:08:06,920 Certainly, people trying to look at what is going on in the brain in dyslexia have proposed many different theories 87 00:08:06,921 --> 00:08:09,314 about what the underlying causes might be. 88 00:08:09,315 --> 00:08:14,735 If you look at the brain in a brain scanner of somebody with dyslexia, it typically looks totally normal. 89 00:08:14,735 --> 00:08:19,256 There's certainly no big holes in the head or anything like that, that you are going to see on a scanner. 90 00:08:19,257 --> 00:08:24,865 But the argument is being made that there may be regions of the cerebellum that are perhaps slightly smaller than they should be 91 00:08:24,866 --> 00:08:28,046 or not functioning quite as they should be. 92 00:08:28,047 --> 00:08:33,820 And this theory has some support, although not everybody would agree with it 93 00:08:33,820 --> 00:08:38,843 and there is certainly other theories equally plausible at the moment that are around. 94 00:08:39,444 --> 00:08:44,664 The notion - the cerebellum is important for getting things automated. 95 00:08:44,665 --> 00:08:50,675 So you can - when you learn to drive a car, first of all, it's very slow and effortfull, and you have to think about everything you do. 96 00:08:50,675 --> 00:08:55,185 By the time you are a skilled driver, it's no longe the case that you have to do that, 97 00:08:55,186 --> 00:08:58,061 you just drive around without thinking about it. 98 00:08:58,061 --> 00:09:00,063 You can do all sorts of other things while you are driving. 99 00:09:00,064 --> 00:09:07,321 So, the argument is that with reading, most people, similarly, become very automatic in how they learn to read: 100 00:09:07,322 --> 00:09:14,902 you do it without thinking about it, but for the dylexic it remains effortfull because the cerebellum is not functioning normally 101 00:09:14,902 --> 00:09:19,387 and it's the cerebellum that helps you get your skills automatized. 102 00:09:19,388 --> 00:09:26,874 And in support of this, it has been argued that in many people with dyslexia, there are some associated problems with motor coordination, 103 00:09:26,875 --> 00:09:32,792 ..... (?) physical skills and so on, and that too could be a sign of a problem with the cerebellum. 104 00:09:32,793 --> 00:09:39,876 Again, that's fairly controversial, it's not being found in all children, and the arguments go to and fro. 105 00:09:39,876 --> 00:09:47,492 But this is not a sort of theory that is particularly disapproved of by the mainstream. People are debating it. 106 00:09:47,493 --> 00:09:55,052 The difficult stumbling block, though, for the Dore approach to treatment comes with the idea that 107 00:09:55,053 --> 00:10:02,531 if you train the motor skills, that is a sort of coordination between different muscles and movements 108 00:10:02,532 --> 00:10:09,374 and between their eyes and hands, that this will somehow have a knock-on effect on things like reading. 109 00:10:09,375 --> 00:10:16,401 And indeed, David Randall and colleagues, who published this initial study on the treatment, 110 00:10:16,401 --> 00:10:23,410 describe it as something of a leap of faith, because the cerebellum is actually known to be a very complicated organ, 111 00:10:23,411 --> 00:10:27,249 with lots of different regions, which are fairly independent from one another. 112 00:10:27,250 --> 00:10:34,590 So there is no real reason to suppose that if you train one part of the cerebellum, it will have somehow a generalized benefit. 113 00:10:34,591 --> 00:10:40,750 And indeed, you could say: "Well, if it were the case that this is true, if you'd had a chance, you would go to skateboarding, 114 00:10:40,751 --> 00:10:48,710 or playing ping-pong, or things like that, ....... (?) or perhaps ballet dancing, things that require balance and coordination, 115 00:10:48,711 --> 00:10:52,653 that should protect you against dyslexia". There is really not much evidence for that, 116 00:10:52,654 --> 00:10:57,645 on the contrary, there is some very good sportsmen who - gymnasts and people with dyslexia. 117 00:10:57,645 --> 00:11:06,790 So it is hard to see how the logic of saying "Train these motor skills and somehow the whole cerebellum function some day improves2 118 00:11:06,790 --> 00:11:12,876 But what does the published evidence look like? Because the theory might be, you know, questionable, 119 00:11:12,877 --> 00:11:16,956 but basically, what the parents are going to say is, "What matter is, does it work?" 120 00:11:18,215 --> 00:11:24,717 Well, there is a published study on the intervention, which claims that it shows that it really does work 121 00:11:24,717 --> 00:11:28,297 if you compare children who have the intervention and children who don't. 122 00:11:28,298 --> 00:11:35,999 And two papers have been reported - one from the initial phase of the study, and the other from a subsequent phase - 123 00:11:36,866 --> 00:11:45,538 And they are reported in the Journal of Dyslexia which, in 2003, published the first paper 124 00:11:45,663 --> 00:11:53,890 which was on just under - started with a sample statistics on the 300 children who were all attending a .... (?) primary school. 125 00:11:53,890 --> 00:11:58,021 And the researchers went in and screened all the children on the dyslexia screening test, 126 00:11:58,021 --> 00:12:01,457 to pull out children who would be suitable for enrolment in the study. 127 00:12:01,458 --> 00:12:10,647 But the first thing that is more important to note is that these were not children who had a very high rate of diagnosis of dyslexia. 128 00:12:10,648 --> 00:12:19,265 So, there were 35 in the group, and about a third of those came out as having a strong risk of dyslexia on this dyslexia screening test. 129 00:12:19,265 --> 00:12:26,744 Another 21% came out with a mild risk, but about half of these children were not really ...... (?) in this category 130 00:12:26,745 --> 00:12:31,496 and they were just picked because their schools (?) were relatively lower compared to the other children. 131 00:12:31,497 --> 00:12:38,199 And there were only a total of 6 children who had previously been diagnosed with dyslexia, out of the 35. 132 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:42,989 There were a couple with a diagnosis of dyspraxia and one with ADHD diagnosis. 133 00:12:42,990 --> 00:12:48,464 So this is not really a sample consisting of children really with severe problems on the whole. 134 00:12:48,464 --> 00:12:50,660 There were few in there with major difficulties. 135 00:12:50,661 --> 00:12:58,037 Nevertheless, the originators of the treatment would argue even quite mild problems might be worth treating with this 136 00:12:58,037 --> 00:13:01,890 and so you could argue this study is nevertheless of value. 137 00:13:01,891 --> 00:13:07,834 So what they did, they started out well in this study: they divided the children randomly in treated and untreated groups, 138 00:13:07,834 --> 00:13:13,687 which is, as I am going on to explain later, is an important part of a good study. 139 00:13:13,687 --> 00:13:20,727 And if you look at the results that are described on the promotion materials of the DORE organization, 140 00:13:20,727 --> 00:13:28,476 they are all in Dore's book that he published, "Dyslexia, the miracle cure", he described the results as stunning 141 00:13:28,477 --> 00:13:35,039 and said that reading age increased threefold, comprehension age increased almost fivefold 142 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:40,640 and writing skills by what he described as "an extraordinary 17-fold". 143 00:13:40,641 --> 00:13:47,856 Of course, everybody reading that think "Wow, my child is going to take off like a rocket if we put him on this intervention." 144 00:13:47,856 --> 00:13:56,806 But unfortunately, these figures are really a classic instance of how statistics can be manipulated in a very misleading way. 145 00:13:57,414 --> 00:14:04,912 So, for a start, they were not based on any comparison between the control children and the untreated children - 146 00:14:04,913 --> 00:14:09,177 sorry, the control children and the treated children. 147 00:14:09,178 --> 00:14:17,568 They were - instead, they just took all the children who would be treated and looked at how they did on a group reading test 148 00:14:17,569 --> 00:14:21,044 that had been administered by the school every year. 149 00:14:21,045 --> 00:14:30,727 And the children had had this on two occasions prior to the intervention - so, 3 months before it started and a year before that - 150 00:14:30,727 --> 00:14:35,345 and on two occasions after the intervention, after this whole long 4-year period. 151 00:14:35,346 --> 00:14:44,263 And what the researchers did was to really just plot the average schools of the group over these 4 time periods 152 00:14:44,264 --> 00:14:49,639 and show that if you compared the amount of change from the first time point to the second, 153 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:54,394 which was before they had had any treatment, it was a certain amount 154 00:14:54,395 --> 00:15:00,347 and if you then compared the second to the third time point, so the treatment had been going on (?) between those two, 155 00:15:00,347 --> 00:15:02,663 there was a different amount of change. 156 00:15:02,664 --> 00:15:06,672 And then they divided one by the other and showed that there was this threefold improvement. 157 00:15:06,673 --> 00:15:13,301 But it's a very, very misleading way of depicting these data, because if you look at them on a graph, here, 158 00:15:13,301 --> 00:15:18,168 you can see that the only odd thing about the data - well, there's two odd things about the data: 159 00:15:18,169 --> 00:15:23,171 one is that at most time points, these children are reading at absolutely normal levels. 160 00:15:23,172 --> 00:15:27,214 So it's not clear why they are regarded as having risk for dyslexia; 161 00:15:27,214 --> 00:15:32,947 and the one time point when they're not, is the time point 3 months before they are involved in the study, 162 00:15:32,947 --> 00:15:39,363 where there is a bit of a drop. But it's really not an impressive demonstration of change 163 00:15:39,364 --> 00:15:46,794 and this division of one time period by another is very misleading, because it just gives double weighting 164 00:15:46,794 --> 00:15:52,357 to this one low period of three months before the treatment started. 165 00:15:52,358 --> 00:15:57,610 And they did the same thing again with these other figures of massive increases that they talk about, 166 00:15:57,611 --> 00:16:06,830 using data from the SATS tests administered by teachers, which are not really regarded as particularly precise or rigorous tests, 167 00:16:06,831 --> 00:16:14,025 and really group children in a fairly global way at level 2, 3 or 4. 168 00:16:14,026 --> 00:16:20,494 Level 2 is average for 7 year old, 3 is average for 9 year old, and 4 is average for an 11 year old. 169 00:16:20,495 --> 00:16:27,876 And to give you an idea of the sort of misleading nature of these massive changes they talk about, 170 00:16:27,876 --> 00:16:34,125 on the writing test, where there is this incredible change that they talk about, of a 17-fold increase, 171 00:16:34,126 --> 00:16:40,792 the score at age 8, the average score was 2.5, which is about what you'd expect from a 8 year old. 172 00:16:40,792 --> 00:16:47,103 At age 9, it was 2.56, which is a little bit better, but not much. 173 00:16:47,104 --> 00:16:53,486 And then, they argue, the intervention came in, and at age 10, the children scored 2.95. 174 00:16:53,486 --> 00:16:56,888 They are still rather below where they ought to be at the age of 10. 175 00:16:56,888 --> 00:17:01,372 It looks as if on this particular writing assessment, the children were just rather creeping along. 176 00:17:01,373 --> 00:17:09,878 But because the difference between 2.53 and 2.56 is less than the difference between 2.56 and 2.95, 177 00:17:09,879 --> 00:17:17,935 they make a big computation of dividing one by the other, actually coming out with the number 17, which is a wrong number (?): it's actually 13. 178 00:17:17,935 --> 00:17:24,646 So there is a 13-fold change. But if you look at the overall numbers, this is really not so an impressive game at all. 179 00:17:24,647 --> 00:17:27,761 It's really a very misleading way of presenting the numbers. 180 00:17:27,762 --> 00:17:36,509 So, most people would say, this is really smoke in mirrors in terms of using statistics in a way that isn't really valid. 181 00:17:36,925 --> 00:17:42,129 The other thing that is of notice is that all these results that have given so much publicity 182 00:17:42,130 --> 00:17:47,697 in promoting the treatment about these massive changes, haven't talked about the control group at all. 183 00:17:47,697 --> 00:17:51,428 They've just talked about, "Well, we've got these children, before treatment they did this, 184 00:17:51,428 --> 00:17:53,800 and after treatment they did that, and it has all gone up". 185 00:17:53,801 --> 00:17:59,717 And of course, if schools do go up after treatment, it's not necessarily because the treatment works: 186 00:17:59,717 --> 00:18:02,299 There are lots of other reasons you need to bear in mind. 187 00:18:02,951 --> 00:18:07,555 And the first of which is just, on some things, you get better because you get older, 188 00:18:07,556 --> 00:18:13,635 so that if you were to measure shoe sizes before the DORE treatment and after it, it would go up, 189 00:18:13,636 --> 00:18:16,663 but it wouldn't mean that it made your feet grow bigger. 190 00:18:16,664 --> 00:18:24,339 Now, clearly, that's a silly example in most cases, because people try to use measures that don't necessarily change with age, 191 00:18:24,340 --> 00:18:26,643 or that are adjusted in some way for age. 192 00:18:26,644 --> 00:18:31,742 But it's important to bear that in mind when people are talking about changes on things like - 193 00:18:31,743 --> 00:18:38,029 the DORE program, they talk about changes on balance, balance improves dramatically after the program. 194 00:18:38,029 --> 00:18:43,498 These are measures that have not been adjusted for age at all, and so, some of these changes could well be due to the fact 195 00:18:43,499 --> 00:18:48,309 that the children are getting older and getting better at doing these things because of that. 196 00:18:48,310 --> 00:18:56,125 Another uninteresting reason why schools may improve is that the children may be having some other sort of special help. 197 00:18:56,126 --> 00:19:03,315 So, if a child is having reading difficulty, they may very well be getting some special help at the school, in addition to following this program. 198 00:19:03,315 --> 00:19:10,043 And that may be what's causing the change, rather than the particular intervention you are interested in. 199 00:19:10,044 --> 00:19:14,869 What's very well known, of course, is the placebo effect, which is a sort of concept coming from medicine, 200 00:19:14,870 --> 00:19:20,641 which also says that you can get better just because you think you are going to get better, because you think somebody has done something effective. 201 00:19:20,642 --> 00:19:25,611 And in the case of educational treatments, you can see effects where - 202 00:19:25,612 --> 00:19:31,881 because the teachers and the parents and the children themselves are all full of expectations of how this is going to improve them - 203 00:19:31,882 --> 00:19:38,911 there is more motivation: everybody gets positive attention and this itself can cause positive effects. 204 00:19:40,150 --> 00:19:45,830 The fourth reason, which is often neglected, because it really doesn't affect things in medicine so much, 205 00:19:45,831 --> 00:19:50,071 but in education, it's actually rather important, using the sort of thing like reading tests: 206 00:19:50,072 --> 00:19:55,595 you can have practice effects. So you can get better upon some things, just because you've done it before. 207 00:19:55,596 --> 00:20:00,521 And we've seen this quite a lot with language tests, for example, that we give to children, 208 00:20:00,522 --> 00:20:05,695 where, the first time you test a child, they don't know what to expect, they don't know what's coming, 209 00:20:05,696 --> 00:20:09,607 you aske them to do something that's unfamiliar and they are a little bit nervous, maybe. 210 00:20:09,607 --> 00:20:16,122 You test them again on the same thing a month later: they are much, much better, simply because they've done it before 211 00:20:16,122 --> 00:20:19,894 and they are calmer about it, they know what to expect, and so on. 212 00:20:19,894 --> 00:20:26,122 So you can get practice effects that can make quite a difference, just because you know what to expect 213 00:20:26,122 --> 00:20:30,402 and you are familiar with the whole situation of the test. 214 00:20:30,403 --> 00:20:37,856 The fifth reason - and the last one, you'll be pleased to hear - why people may improve for no good reason 215 00:20:37,857 --> 00:20:42,753 is the hardest to explain and it's something known as regression to the mean, 216 00:20:42,754 --> 00:20:49,400 and it's just a statistical artefact, which has to do with, if you pick somebody because they're bad at something, 217 00:20:49,401 --> 00:20:54,259 the odds are, when you test them on a second occasion, they'll be a little bit better (?). 218 00:20:54,260 --> 00:20:59,498 The converse is also true: if you pick somebody who is very good, they tend to get a little bit worse when you test them a second time. 219 00:20:59,499 --> 00:21:08,743 Why should that be? The reason why this occurs is because our measures are not entirely perfect an accurate - 220 00:21:08,744 --> 00:21:13,444 I'm showing a graph here, where we have a measure that is almost perfect, 221 00:21:13,445 --> 00:21:21,953 and you test people on two occasions, and you just will see that their scores on time 1 and time 2 are identical: we are assuming that there is no genune change. 222 00:21:21,954 --> 00:21:26,963 If you do that, then you don't get regression to the mean, because the measure is perfect 223 00:21:26,964 --> 00:21:31,039 and if you test them a second time, they'll get exactly the same sort of score. 224 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:39,782 And what you can see on the right hand side of the graph here, is people divided up according to the average score they started with. 225 00:21:39,782 --> 00:21:45,397 So we've put people into groups who were very poor to start with, who were medium, less good and so on. 226 00:21:45,397 --> 00:21:49,491 And these are just fictitious data made up to illustrate the point. 227 00:21:49,492 --> 00:21:56,420 So you just generate these numbers by saying, "We've got a measure that has this particular characteristic 228 00:21:56,420 --> 00:22:01,095 that if you measure on one occasion, on another occasion it remains pretty much the same". 229 00:22:01,096 --> 00:22:06,777 So then, you don't get regression to mean and you get people to maintain their position across time. 230 00:22:06,778 --> 00:22:10,011 So if you then see change, you can say "Well, it's genuine change." 231 00:22:10,011 --> 00:22:15,591 But most of our measures are not like that, most of our measures are not perfectly correlated: 232 00:22:15,591 --> 00:22:21,641 that means, you measure them on one time, and another time, and they actually change because of all sorts of things. 233 00:22:21,641 --> 00:22:29,725 Things like the particular test items that you're using, whether you are in a good mood, whether you've made a lucky guess in some items. 234 00:22:29,726 --> 00:22:36,125 And what you can see is that if you do that, that some people's scores go up with time, some people's go down with time. 235 00:22:36,126 --> 00:22:44,983 But on average, if you start with a low score, the odds are, you come a little bit closer to the average when you are tested on another occasion. 236 00:22:44,983 --> 00:22:47,747 If you start with a high score, you get a little bit worse. 237 00:22:47,748 --> 00:22:53,566 And this is nothing to do with genuine change: it's just to do with the fact that our measures are imperfect. 238 00:22:53,567 --> 00:22:59,977 And it has been argued that this is a major reason - all sorts of treatments that work (?) but don't really work. 239 00:22:59,978 --> 00:23:04,401 It's just that it looks as if you've seen a change, and you tend to attribute it to the treatment. 240 00:23:04,401 --> 00:23:10,252 Now, this sounded very depressing, because it means there's all sorts of reasons why we can see change, 241 00:23:10,253 --> 00:23:14,912 and how do we distinguish whether we've got a genuine change due to our treatment? 242 00:23:14,912 --> 00:23:21,473 But the fact is that you can control for most of these things if you do a study that has a control group. 243 00:23:21,474 --> 00:23:30,969 That's why those who are trying to do scientific evaluations are really keen to include control groups in studies and argue that they are essential. 244 00:23:30,970 --> 00:23:37,428 Because if you have another group of children who have been selected to be as similar as possible to your treated group, 245 00:23:37,428 --> 00:23:42,122 and are the same tests before and after the period where the treated group are treated, 246 00:23:42,122 --> 00:23:48,540 you are actually controlling for the effects of maturation, the effects of any other intervention they might be having, 247 00:23:48,541 --> 00:23:53,250 practice effects in particular, and also this dreadful regression to the mean. 248 00:23:53,251 --> 00:23:56,351 All of those things can be then taken into account. 249 00:23:56,351 --> 00:24:02,283 And in so far as they have effects, what you would expect to see is that you may see improvement in your control group 250 00:24:03,212 --> 00:24:06,880 because of these spurious things that we don't really want to see. 251 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:13,156 And then you can say, "well there is more improvement in the treated group" (?) and it is that difference that is really critical. 252 00:24:13,157 --> 00:24:20,931 It doesn't actually control to use - if you have a group who have not been given any treatment - it doesn't control for placebo effects. 253 00:24:20,931 --> 00:24:27,925 So you've still got the problem that maybe your treated group will improve just because everybody is focusing on them with great excitement. 254 00:24:27,925 --> 00:24:32,778 But you could actually also have control for that, and it's becoming increasingly popular in this field 255 00:24:32,779 --> 00:24:38,341 to say that what you should have is a control group who are actually given some alternative treatment. 256 00:24:38,342 --> 00:24:42,780 So, for example, if you are interested in a treatment that might improve reading, 257 00:24:42,780 --> 00:24:48,264 you could either get children some standard educational treatment that they are getting anyway 258 00:24:48,265 --> 00:24:53,582 So if your claim is that you are doing better than a phonological-based treatment, 259 00:24:53,582 --> 00:24:58,205 you could have a control group given that treatment and see if you are making really that much difference, 260 00:24:58,206 --> 00:25:03,407 or you might prefer to say, "Well, let's treat something else, let's give children training in something completely different 261 00:25:03,407 --> 00:25:06,862 that isn't focused on reading, but nevertheless could benefit them in other ways." 262 00:25:06,863 --> 00:25:10,104 And then you can do that sort of comparison. 263 00:25:10,105 --> 00:25:18,027 So what about the DORE study, because I mentioned at the outset, when talking about this study, that they did have a control group. 264 00:25:18,027 --> 00:25:23,981 But so far, talking about the results, are only mentioned (?) the dramatic changes that they saw, 265 00:25:23,982 --> 00:25:27,122 which ignored the control group. 266 00:25:27,123 --> 00:25:34,593 The interesting thing is that when you look at their control group, it illustrates perfectly the importance of having a control group. 267 00:25:34,593 --> 00:25:39,806 So, on they dylexia risk's score, where a high score is bad, 268 00:25:39,806 --> 00:25:47,228 they had a change in the treated group, from 0.74 to 0.34. 269 00:25:47,228 --> 00:25:51,060 So you think: "Wow, that's great, these children's risks for dyslexia have really come down." 270 00:25:51,061 --> 00:25:56,440 In the control group, the average score changed from 0.72 to 0.44. 271 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,037 Now, you could say: "Well, it's not so big a change." 272 00:25:59,038 --> 00:26:03,849 The trouble is, with groups this size, you can't really tell whether that's meaningful. 273 00:26:03,850 --> 00:26:07,967 But certainly, what is clear is that both groups improved on the dyslexia screening test, 274 00:26:07,968 --> 00:26:12,089 even though the control group had not had the intervention. 275 00:26:12,090 --> 00:26:16,607 So, it really illustrates the point very clearly that on a lot of these measures, 276 00:26:16,608 --> 00:26:21,043 everybody gets better, even if they are not treated. 277 00:26:21,690 --> 00:26:30,834 Now, if we look at the more precise data that they presented, they presented average scores on the different subtests from the dyslexia screening tests, 278 00:26:30,835 --> 00:26:36,090 I won't talk about all of them, I have got a fuller presentation 279 00:26:36,091 --> 00:26:39,408 where I do talk about all the different measures they use 280 00:26:39,409 --> 00:26:42,662 and I don't want to sort of be accused of delberately hiding things, 281 00:26:42,663 --> 00:26:46,291 but I think the tests that people would be most interested in are the literacy tests. 282 00:26:46,291 --> 00:26:52,752 So, you undertake the DORE treatment because you want to get better at reading and writing, if you are a parent of a dyslexic child, at any rate. 283 00:26:52,752 --> 00:27:03,100 So, looking at the results on those tests, what they found was that there were a total of 4 tests that had to do with literacy directly. 284 00:27:03,101 --> 00:27:07,784 And on one of those, it looked as if the treated group did better than the untreated group. 285 00:27:07,785 --> 00:27:13,853 But there is a problem with that, though, because on this reading test, the untreated - 286 00:27:13,854 --> 00:27:20,498 the control group are actually right on the average score for their age at the start of the treatment - at the start of the study. 287 00:27:20,498 --> 00:27:27,497 So, in a sense, you could argue, "Is there really room for improvement ...... (?) school absolutely average, 288 00:27:27,498 --> 00:27:35,425 whereas it just so happened that the children who had treatment started a little bit lower and therefore had more improvement. 289 00:27:35,426 --> 00:27:38,544 And their improvement was not dramatic, one has to say as well. 290 00:27:38,544 --> 00:27:43,222 Their school went up from 3 to 3.5, on a scale of 0 to 10. 291 00:27:43,222 --> 00:27:51,733 On the other measures, again it illustrated that on two of them, everybody improved, regardless of whether they had the treatment. 292 00:27:51,733 --> 00:27:54,896 And on the third one, nobody changed very much at all. 293 00:27:54,896 --> 00:28:03,226 So, this is not dramatic evidence of improvement but you could argue: "Well, nevertheless there was one measure that looked a little bit promising." 294 00:28:03,227 --> 00:28:11,782 But they then, in the second phase of the study, went on to give the control group the same treatment, and they published this in 2007. 295 00:28:11,782 --> 00:28:16,456 So we now don't anymore have a control group as everybody has been treated: 296 00:28:16,456 --> 00:28:21,587 one group early on, and the other group with a delayed time scale. 297 00:28:21,587 --> 00:28:30,068 And they presented the data between time 1 at the start of the study and right at the end of the study, when everybody had had this treatment. 298 00:28:30,069 --> 00:28:37,502 But when you look at the results there, it's clear that there really is a, you know, no persistent improvement in reading. 299 00:28:37,502 --> 00:28:41,723 In fact, the mean scores for the children having the delayed treatment on the reading test 300 00:28:41,724 --> 00:28:45,453 have now really gone down, rather than up, at the end of treatment. 301 00:28:45,454 --> 00:28:51,185 And the general impression, I would say, is that there is nothing very stunning going on here, 302 00:28:51,186 --> 00:28:57,615 certainly nothing that matches the description that you get on the promotion materials for the intervention. 303 00:28:57,616 --> 00:29:08,095 So, overall, I would argue that the evidence for gains associated with this treatment is really not at all compelling. 304 00:29:08,096 --> 00:29:17,265 First of all, the claims that are made for stunning changes are all coming from analyses where they didn't incorporate the controls 305 00:29:17,265 --> 00:29:21,820 and they just tried to argue that any change you see at the time must be due to the treatment. 306 00:29:21,820 --> 00:29:25,091 and not taking into account all these other factors. 307 00:29:25,092 --> 00:29:30,355 And on reading measures, where there was control group data available, 308 00:29:30,356 --> 00:29:37,098 there was an initial small gain in the treated group, but it wasn't sustained by the end of the study. 309 00:29:37,099 --> 00:29:41,359 So, it really doesn't look terribly promising. 310 00:29:42,420 --> 00:29:46,989 Now, this is why in general, I think it's true to say this: 311 00:29:46,989 --> 00:29:52,641 I don't know of anybody in the dyslexic community who is an advocate - in the academic community 312 00:29:52,641 --> 00:29:57,753 who is an advocate of the DORE treatment, other than people that are directly associated with the DORE organization. 313 00:29:57,754 --> 00:30:05,466 And so, the reason really is just that the evidence is not at all compelling, 314 00:30:05,466 --> 00:30:09,184 although the study was small and you could argue a larger study should be done. 315 00:30:09,184 --> 00:30:14,779 There is a real mismatch between the claims that are being made and the evidence that is available. 316 00:30:14,780 --> 00:30:21,717 But the interesting thing is also why so many people seem to nevertheless regard this as an effective treatment. 317 00:30:21,717 --> 00:30:29,504 If the testimonials are to be believed, there are many satisfied customers and happy parents who feel that their children have been helped. 318 00:30:29,505 --> 00:30:35,596 I think there is quite an interesting set of reasons why this may be so. 319 00:30:35,597 --> 00:30:41,405 And one is that there is a well known - in the psychological field - well known human tendency 320 00:30:41,406 --> 00:30:47,147 to think that something that you've put in a lot of time and money too, was worthwhile. 321 00:30:47,148 --> 00:30:55,566 It's called cognitive dissonance, and it means that if you've actually put in the effort, you tend to feel that there was an effect. 322 00:30:55,567 --> 00:31:01,531 You have to somehow resolve this sort of inconsistency, otherwise, in your mind. 323 00:31:01,532 --> 00:31:06,852 And this was beautifully illustrated, not by the trial of the DORE treatment, but in another trial, 324 00:31:06,852 --> 00:31:11,242 which was a very nicely well-conducted trial of something called Sunflower therapy, 325 00:31:11,243 --> 00:31:19,165 which is a rather holistic approach to intervention for dyslexia that involves kinesiology and physical manipulation, 326 00:31:19,166 --> 00:31:23,499 massage, homeopathy, herbal remedies and neurolingusitc programming. 327 00:31:23,500 --> 00:31:30,274 And there was a very rigorous study done for this, and what was interesting about it 328 00:31:30,275 --> 00:31:39,296 was that, like so many of these things, they didn't really find a lot of evidence for any better change in the clinical versus the control group, 329 00:31:39,297 --> 00:31:43,357 although, to some extent, both groups were securing (?) their schools were improving. 330 00:31:43,867 --> 00:31:49,837 What they did find, though, is that the children themselves had higher self-esteem if they had undergone the Sunflower treatment, 331 00:31:49,838 --> 00:31:56,296 but that also, 57% of the parents did think that Sunflower therapy was effective in treating their child. 332 00:31:56,955 --> 00:32:04,260 So there is a clear mismatch between what the study showed of the objective evidence on the children's learning difficulties, 333 00:32:04,261 --> 00:32:06,682 and what the parents actually thought. 334 00:32:06,683 --> 00:32:12,230 It is possible that this could be related to the fact that the children's scores did improve, 335 00:32:12,231 --> 00:32:17,595 but if you didn't know that the control children had also improved, you might attribute that to the therapy - 336 00:32:17,595 --> 00:32:23,572 but also to the fact that people were again being given a lot of encouragement, 337 00:32:23,573 --> 00:32:29,845 there was a lot invested in that treatment, and then there might well (?) have been some sort of sense of cognitive dissonance there. 338 00:32:29,846 --> 00:32:41,088 There's also a strong human tendency to be impressed by certain kinds of explanation that get more biological about dyslexia, 339 00:32:41,088 --> 00:32:48,683 particularly those such as the DORE treatment that get more neurological and claim to be doing something to the brain in treating dyslexia. 340 00:32:48,684 --> 00:32:54,007 There was a beautiful study done - published - in 2008, not on dyslexia, 341 00:32:54,007 --> 00:32:59,816 but just more generally on people's tendency to be impressed by scientific eyplanations. 342 00:32:59,817 --> 00:33:09,268 and what these researchers did was to give people explanations of psychological phenomena that are well known 343 00:33:09,269 --> 00:33:14,108 and they either gave them a good explanation or they gave them a not very good explanation 344 00:33:14,109 --> 00:33:21,341 that was more like just a re-description of the effect, and asked people to judge whether this was a good explanation or not. 345 00:33:21,342 --> 00:33:25,603 And what was fascinating about this study was that in general, people were quite good at doing this: 346 00:33:25,604 --> 00:33:33,309 even if they had no familiarity or background in psychology, they could distinguish a good explanation from a bad one. 347 00:33:33,309 --> 00:33:39,629 But what they found was that if they added some verbiage that just talked about the brain in various ways, 348 00:33:39,629 --> 00:33:45,245 and said, "This result came about because brain scans showed it", or "because we looked at the frontal lobes", 349 00:33:45,246 --> 00:33:48,371 people were much more impressed with the bad explanations. 350 00:33:48,371 --> 00:33:53,128 So a good explanation didn't get any better when you added all this neuroscience waffle, 351 00:33:53,129 --> 00:33:59,340 but if you added neuroscience waffle to a bad explanation, people thought it not so bad. 352 00:33:59,341 --> 00:34:05,954 And so, there is a tendency to be very impressed by anything that talks about, adds the brain in to an ........ (?) explanation. 353 00:34:05,955 --> 00:34:12,994 And I think this is used by people who then try and add spurious neuroscience sometimes 354 00:34:12,995 --> 00:34:18,171 to their accounts of their particular promissing theory. 355 00:34:18,172 --> 00:34:23,808 And it really is not - we shouldn't allow ourselves to be mislead. 356 00:34:24,541 --> 00:34:34,228 So I think, to sum up, there are a number of barriers to objective evaluation of intelligence, 357 00:34:34,229 --> 00:34:38,309 which, to some extent, functions about (?) our human condition, 358 00:34:38,309 --> 00:34:44,095 that we are not naturally good at taking in lots of numbers and looking at graphs 359 00:34:44,096 --> 00:34:47,758 and trying to sort of take into account alternative explanations. 360 00:34:47,759 --> 00:34:52,649 We tend to be impressed when we hear other people tell us that something has worked 361 00:34:52,649 --> 00:34:57,183 and it's hard - you have to almost guard yourself against the tendency to do that 362 00:34:57,184 --> 00:35:02,389 and to look rather for the hard evidence, to look for the actual numerical data. 363 00:35:03,249 --> 00:35:08,301 We have to be very careful when people start giving us explanations that have got a lot of neuroscience in them 364 00:35:08,301 --> 00:35:12,194 and check out, is this real neuroscience or is it just put in there to impress us? 365 00:35:13,808 --> 00:35:19,508 We have to be aware of the effect of cognitive dissonance and the tendency to believe some things 366 00:35:19,509 --> 00:35:23,866 simply because we have invested time and money in it 367 00:35:23,867 --> 00:35:31,401 and, most importantly, we have to bear in mind that there will be effects on children's performance 368 00:35:31,401 --> 00:35:37,974 of maturation, of our expectations, of just get practising on things, 369 00:35:37,975 --> 00:35:42,705 and there are also these dreadful statistical artefacts that can make it look as if a change has occurred, 370 00:35:42,706 --> 00:35:45,838 when it's really not particularly impressive. 371 00:35:45,838 --> 00:35:50,363 But I think, if one bears these things in mind, the bottom line is really: 372 00:35:50,364 --> 00:35:54,575 "Look for evidence from studies that have got adequate controls" 373 00:35:54,576 --> 00:36:01,508 and if you do, you'll be in - a standard, I think, by how far you can see improvements in children, even if they haven't had the treatment. 374 00:36:01,508 --> 00:36:06,140 and there are lots of things that will make things a lot better, just with the passage of time. 375 00:36:06,141 --> 00:36:11,339 But if you really want to demonstrate that there has been an effective treatment, 376 00:36:11,339 --> 00:36:15,804 you do have to show an improvement relative to a control group, 377 00:36:15,804 --> 00:36:20,955 rather than just, somebody started out not so good and is now a little bit better after the treatment. 378 00:36:20,956 --> 00:36:29,953 I hope that that might give you some useful indicators when trying to look at new treatments that are out there and on offer, 379 00:36:29,954 --> 00:36:35,111 and for a more detailed account of some of this work, there are various - 380 00:36:35,112 --> 00:36:40,104 there is a powerpoint presentation with notes on my website on this topic.